非晴空条件下光伏发电短期功率预测方法

王清亮; 杨博; 应欣峰; 宋曦; 高梅

doi:10.19912/j.0254-0096.tynxb.2020-0582

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太阳能学报 ›› 2022, Vol. 43 ›› Issue (3) : 188-196. DOI: 10.19912/j.0254-0096.tynxb.2020-0582

非晴空条件下光伏发电短期功率预测方法

王清亮, 杨博, 应欣峰, 宋曦, 高梅

作者信息 +

SHORT-TERM PHOTOVOLTAIC POWER FORECASTING METHOD UNDER NON-CLEAR SKY CONDITION

Wang Qingliang, Yang Bo, Ying Xinfeng, Song Xi, Gao Mei

Author information +

文章历史 +

摘要

针对非晴空条件下光伏发电短期功率预测精度不高的问题,提出一种基于自适应混合核的相关向量机光伏发电短期功率预测方法。通过构造混合核函数和自适应寻优核参数来增强预测模型的泛化和学习能力,建立对多尺度多模态变化数据的映射关系,实现光伏发电功率随机性波动规律的机器学习和有效捕捉。采用关联系数筛选历史相似日,通过历史相似日数据自动确定最优预测模型。最后,采用美国俄勒冈州某光伏电站的实测数据进行实验,对比该文方法与其他预测方法的功率预测精度。结果表明该文预测方法在非晴空条件下对光伏发电短期功率预测精度最高。

Abstract

To solve the problem that the short-term power forecasting accuracy of a photovoltaic generator is not high under non-clear sky conditions, a new short-term power forecasting method is proposed based on relevance vector machine model with an adaptive hybrid kernel. By constructing hybrid kernel function and adaptive optimization kernel parameters, the generalization and learning abilities of the forecasting model are enhanced. Then, the mapping relation of multi-scale and multi-mode data is established to realize the machine learning and effective capture of the random fluctuation rules of photovoltaic power generation. The correlation coefficient was used to screen the historical similarity days, and the optimal forecasting model was automatically determined by the data of historical similarity days. Finally, the short-term power forecasting accuracy of the proposed method and other forecasting methods is compared with the measured data from a photovoltaic power station in Oregon, USA. The results show that the proposed method has the highest accuracy for short-term power forecasting of the photovoltaic generator under non-clear sky conditions.

导出引用

王清亮, 杨博, 应欣峰, 宋曦, 高梅. 非晴空条件下光伏发电短期功率预测方法[J]. 太阳能学报. 2022, 43(3): 188-196 https://doi.org/10.19912/j.0254-0096.tynxb.2020-0582

Wang Qingliang, Yang Bo, Ying Xinfeng, Song Xi, Gao Mei. SHORT-TERM PHOTOVOLTAIC POWER FORECASTING METHOD UNDER NON-CLEAR SKY CONDITION[J]. Acta Energiae Solaris Sinica. 2022, 43(3): 188-196 https://doi.org/10.19912/j.0254-0096.tynxb.2020-0582

中图分类号： TM615

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