Feng Guohui, Tang Yongyuan, Cheng Yuqian, Chang Shasha, Chen Xuyuan
Aiming at the problem that excessive meteorological parameters in traditional forecasting models lead to reduced prediction accuracy, a combined prediction model integrating kernel-based fuzzy C-means clustering(KFCM)similarity-day theory, crested porcupine optimizer (CPO), and squeeze-and-excitation (SE) channel attention mechanism with a convolutional long short-term memory (CNN-LSTM) network is proposed. Firstly, primary meteorological features are identified through Pearson correlation coefficient and maximal information coefficient. Secondly, the kernel-based fuzzy C-means clustering algorithm is applied to flexibly categorize samples into four weather types: sunny days, partly cloudy days, sunny to cloudy days, and rainy days. Subsequently, a CNN integrated with the SE mechanism extracts spatiotemporal features from key meteorological parameters and historical power data. Finally, CPO is utilized to optimize the hyperparameters of the long short-term memory (LSTM) network, and the optimal hyperparameter combination is selected for prediction. The comparative experiment and simulation results show that under the four weather conditions, compared to baseline models, the proposed model reduces the mean absolute error (MAE) by 2.67, 1.9054 kW, 1.6192, and 2.1716 kW on average, respectively; decreases the root mean square error (RMSE) by 3.1462, 2.1492, 1.7318, and 2.3303 on average. The average MAE, RMSE, and R2 values across all weather conditions reach 0.6237, 0.8854, and 0.9982, respectively, demonstrating the model’s effectiveness.