基于逆高斯过程,考虑到初始退化具有随机特征,建立光伏组件的性能退化模型,并对其可靠性进行评估。失效机理分析表明,光伏组件的退化过程主要表现为输出功率的衰减,其衰减具有单调、随机特征,且初始退化也具有随机特征,据此建立光伏组件带有时移的逆高斯性能退化模型;基于极大似然估计方法,给出模型参数及可靠度函数的估计;基于所建模型,对光伏组件退化实例进行分析,通过与传统逆高斯退化模型进行比较,表明所建模型能更为准确地描述光伏组件的退化规律,所得可靠度估计结果更为符合实际。
Abstract
Based on the inverse Gaussian process, considering the random characteristics of the initial degradation, the performance degradation model of PV modules are established and its reliability is evaluated. First of all, the failure mechanism analysis shows that the degradation process of photovoltaic modules is mainly manifested as the attenuation of output power, which has monotonous and random characteristics, and the initial degradation also has random characteristics, so as to establish the inverse Gaussian performance degradation model with time shift of photovoltaic modules. Then, based on the maximum likelihood estimation method, the model parameters and reliability functions are estimated. Finally, based on the model, an example of photovoltaic module degradation is analyzed, and compared with the traditional inverse Gaussian degradation model, the results show that the model can describe the degradation law of photovoltaic modules more accurately, and the reliability estimation results are more in line with the reality.
关键词
可靠性 /
光伏组件 /
退化 /
逆高斯过程 /
随机初始退化
Key words
reliability /
photovoltaic module /
degradation /
inverse Gaussian process /
random initial degradation
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基金
国家自然科学基金（72071099; 71861011）; 江西省博士后科研择优资助项目（2019KY35）
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