基于2019年3月—2020年2月白银和敦煌光伏电站的实际观测数据,建立4种斜面辐射组合计算模型,在对模型预测精度检验的基础上,分析了电站当地不同倾角倾斜面辐射量的变化特征以及不同时段发电量与倾角大小之间的关系,同时提出3种最佳倾角选取方案并对输出的年总发电量进行对比,结果表明：1）4种组合模型预测效果均较为理想,白银电站4种组合模型各月平均RRMSE均低于8%,敦煌均低于9%。2）斜面总辐射与直接辐射9月之前随倾角增大呈现出递减趋势,大致表现为0°≈15°>30°>45°>60°>90°;9月之后则相反,表现为60°>45°>30°>15°>0°。散射辐射9月之前随倾角增大而减小,之后各倾角散射辐射差距不大,反射辐射始终随倾角增大而增大。各倾角直接辐射占总辐射比例最大,散射辐射次之,反射辐射最小;3）4种模型计算的最佳倾角较为接近,白银和敦煌年最佳倾角约为35°和38°,月最佳倾角变化曲线呈余弦型,白银和敦煌变化范围分别为4°~64°和6°~66°,白银夏、冬半年的最佳倾角分别约为16°和56°,敦煌分别约为19°和58°;4）为得到最大年输出总电量,建议电站选取方案Ⅱ每月调整阵列倾角,年总发电量较方案Ⅰ白银和敦煌可提高约5.3%和5.0%,条件不具备时可按方案Ⅲ每年至少调整2次阵列倾角,年总发电量较方案Ⅰ可增加约4.6%和4.1%。
Abstract
Based on data collected between March 2019 and February 2020 at Baiyin and Dunhuang photovoltaic power stations, four combination models are established to calculate the solar radiation on the inclined surface. By testing the forecast precision of the combination models, the solar radiation characteristics on the inclined surface with different angles and the relationship between the power generation and tilt angle in different time periods are analyzed. Three optimum tilt angle selection schemes are proposed and the total annual power generations are compared. The results reveal the following：1） the four combination models achieve high precision, Baiyin and Dunhuang monthly-average RRMSEs of the four combination models are below 8% and 9%, respectively; 2） The total radiation and direct radiation on the inclined surface exhibit a decreasing tendency with the increase of the tilt angle before September, which is observed as follows： 0°≈15°>30°>45°>60°>90°. The opposite trend is observed after September： 60°>45°>30°>15°>0°. The diffuse radiation decreases with the increase of the tilt angle before September and the difference between each angle is small after September. At all times, the reflection radiation increases with the increase of the tilt angle. The direct radiation occupies the highest proportion of total radiation at each tilt angle, while the diffuse radiation occupies the second proportion and the reflection radiation has the smallest percentage; 3） The difference between the optimum tilt angles calculated by each of the four combination models is small. The yearly optimum tilt angles are 35° and 38° for Baiyin and Dunhuang, respectively. The monthly optimum tilt angle exhibits cosine-type variation, and the variation ranges of Baiyin and Dunhuang are 4°-64° and 6°-66°, respectively. The summer and winter half year optimum tilt angles are approximately 16° and 56° for Baiyin, and 19° and 58° for Dunhuang; 4） To achieve the largest total annual power generation, it is recommended that the tilt angle is adjusted each month according to scheme Ⅱ, and that the annual power generation is increased by 5.3% and 5.0%, compared with scheme Ⅰ, for Baiyin and Dunhuang, respectively. If scheme Ⅱ is difficult to apply, adjusting the tilt angle at least twice a year according to scheme Ⅲ will result in the increase of annual power generation by 4.6% and 4.1%, compared with scheme Ⅰ, for Baiyin and Dunhuang, respectively.
关键词
太阳辐射 /
光伏电站 /
光伏阵列 /
误差分析 /
倾角
Key words
solar radiation /
PV power stations /
PV array /
error analysis /
tilt angle
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基金
甘肃省气象局面上项目（Ms2021-19）; 甘肃省气象局创新团队（GSQXCXTD-2020-03）
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