基于1979—2019年中国53站逐月水平面总辐射（GHI）观测资料,采用REOF方法将中国GHI划分为北方地区、西南地区、长江中下游地区和东南地区4个区域,从太阳能资源的角度,对比NCEP/DOE、JRA55和ERA5大气再分析GHI资料与地面观测资料差异。结果表明：3种大气再分析GHI资料整体较地面观测偏大,均方根偏差和相对偏差最大的区域均位于30°N附近,年际变化一致性均为东南部优于西北部;ERA5数据在均方根偏差、相对偏差、年际变化规律以及空间分辨率等方面均优于NCEP/DOE和JRA55;1979—2019年期间,3种大气再分析资料与地面观测数据的差异呈减小趋势,其中JRA55和ERA5资料在各区域与观测之间的偏差减小趋势显著;太阳能资源稳定度方面,3种大气再分析资料在北方地区与观测接近,南方地区JRA55以偏高为主,NCEP/DOE和ERA5以偏低为主。
Abstract
Based on the monthly global horizontal irradiance（GHI） observation data of 53 stations from 1979 to 2019, the solar energy resources distribution of China is divided into four regions （the north, the southwest, the middle and lower reaches of Yangtze River and the southeast） by using REOF method. Differences of GHI between NCEP/DOE, JRA55, ERA5 reanalysis data and observation data are analyzed under the perspective of solar energy resources. The results show that three kinds of reanalysis GHI data are all larger than that of observed on the ground, and those areas with the largest root mean square deviation （RMSE） and relative deviation （RE） are all located near 30°N, The consistency of interannual variation is that the southeast is better than the northwest. The ERA5 data is better than NCEP /DOE and JRA55 in terms of RMSE, RE, interannual variation and spatial resolution. GHI of three reanalysis data are close to the observation data from 1979 to 2019, but the decreasing trends of deviations are significant in JRA55 and ERA5. In terms of the stability of solar energy resources, three kinds of reanalysis data are close to the observation in northern China, while JRA55 is mainly higher, NCEP/DOE and ERA5 are mainly lower in southern China.
关键词
太阳能 /
资源评估 /
中国 /
适用性 /
大气再分析资料
Key words
solar energy /
resource assessment /
China /
applicability /
atmospheric reanalysis data
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基金
国家自然科学基金（42075188）; 风云三号03批气象卫星工程地面应用系统气候资源评估分系统
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