关键词: 太阳能, 统计方法, 误差分析, 散射辐射, 通用模型

Abstract: Using the daily meteorological data during 1981-2010 from 59 meteorological station in five different climatic zones of China, 8 diffuse fraction and 3 diffuse coefficient models for solar diffuse radiation estimation were compared and analyzed to determine the suitability of these models in different climatic zones. The five evaluation indexes, including determination of coefficient （R²）, root mean square error （RMSE）, mean absolute bias error （MABE）, mean bias error （MBE） and global performance index （GPI）, were adopted to obtain the optimal suitable model in different climatic zones. Based on these models, the diffuse fraction and diffuse coefficient generalized models suitable for different climatic zones of China were developed. The results show that the models, except for linear diffuse coefficient models, performs well in estimating diffuse solar radiation. The average R² for diffuse fraction and diffuse coefficient are were 0.85 and 0.62, respectively. The clearness index- and sunshine-based second polynomial diffuse fraction model and sunshine-based third polynomial diffuse coefficient models yield highest accuracy in each zone. Based on these two models, the diffuse fraction and diffuse coefficient generalized models are developed with average R² of 0.89 and 0.70.