以中国某海上风电场筒型基础为研究对象,识别其建造期的风险源,并建立风险指标体系,然后基于改进的模糊故障树方法量化筒型基础建造期的整体风险发生概率,并与单桩基础结果进行对比。研究结果表明：筒型基础及单桩基础结构建造期的风险发生概率分别为3.21×10-3、9.47×10-3。依据DNV规范规定的失效频率等级可知,海上风电筒型基础及单桩基础结构建造期的风险等级均为高风险,但单桩基础的风险概率明显高于筒型基础,高约66.10%,筒型基础建造期的风险更低,工程实用性强。
Abstract
This study is to investigate the overall risk probability of the bucket foundation during the construction period. To achieve the above purpose, the risk sources were first identified. Then, the risk index system of the bucket foundation during the construction period was further constructed. Finally, an improved fuzzy fault tree analysis method was employed to quantify the overall risk probability of the bucket foundation and monopile foundation. The results obtained by the proposed method in this study show that the risk probability of the bucket foundation and monopile foundation is 3.21×10-3 and 9.47×10-3, respectively. According to DNV specification, both the risk probability of the bucket foundation and monopile foundation during the construction period falls into the high-risk level range, and the latter is 66.10 % higher than the bucket foundation. We can conclude that the bucket foundation is relatively safe during the construction period and has preferable engineering practicability.
关键词
海上风电机组 /
风险分析 /
故障树分析 /
筒型基础
Key words
offshore wind turbines /
risk analysis /
fault tree analysis /
bucket foundation
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基金
河北省自然科学基金创新研究群体项目（E2020402074）; 天津市自然科学基金（20JCQNJC01540）; 国家自然科学基金创新研究群体科学基金（51621092）; 高等学校学科创新引智计划（B14012）
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