针对使用数值天气预报（NWP）数据进行风电功率预测时,NWP风速与实际风速存在偏差导致预测精度欠佳,提出一种基于注意力机制（Attenion）门控逻辑单元（GRU）数值天气预报风速修正和Stacking多算法融合的短期风电功率预测模型。首先,分析NWP预报风速和实际风速的皮尔逊相关系数,建立Attention-GRU风速修正模型,提高预报风速精度。其次,考虑风向、温度、湿度、气压、空气密度等气象因素,基于Stacking框架,提出融合XGBoost、LSTM、SVR、LASSO的多算法风电功率预测模型,同时采用网格搜索与交叉验证优化模型参数。最后,选取西北和东北两个典型风电场数据进行验证,算例结果表明,所提出模型能改善NWP风速精度并提升风电功率预测效果。
Abstract
In view of the low accuracy of wind power forecasting due to the deviation of NWP wind speed and actual wind speed when using numerical weather prediction（NWP） data, this paper proposes a short-term wind power forecasting model based on Attention-GRU NWP wind speed correction and multi-algorithm fusion under Stacking framework. Firstly, the Pearson correlation coefficient between NWP prediction wind speed and actual wind speed is analyzed, and a wind speed correction model based on Attention-GRU is established to improve the precision of prediction wind speed. Secondly, considering the meteorological factors such as wind direction, temperature, humidity, air pressure and air density, a multi-algorithm wind power forecasting model based on Stacking framework is proposed, which integrates XGBoost, LSTM, SVR and LASSO. Grid search and cross-validation are used to optimize the model parameters. Finally, two typical wind farms in Northwest and Northeast China are selected to verify the model. The results show that the proposed model can improve the precision of NWP wind speed forecast and effectively improve the forecasting effect of wind power.
关键词
风电 /
预测 /
天气预报 /
深度学习 /
集成学习
Key words
wind power /
forecasting /
weather forecasting /
deep learning /
ensemble learning
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基金
国家自然科学基金（51507134）; 陕西省重点研发计划（2018ZDXM-GY-169）; 西安市科技创新平台建设项目（201805057ZD8CG41）
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