该文评估了5套再分析数据对阿勒泰地区风资源的模拟能力,并分析再分析资料在该区域长年代订正中的适用性问题。结果表明,不同再分析资料在阿勒泰地区的空间模拟存在差异,高分辨率的CFSv2、ERA5资料在空间模拟上更具优势,而JRA55、NCEP-DOE模式存在明显高估。季节上,除NCEP-DOE外,其余4套再分析数据均能模拟出阿勒泰地区风速的季节特性,且对冬季的模拟优于其他季节。在此基础上,以阿勒泰某风电场为例,分别以附近气象站和4套再分析数据作为长期测站,对测风塔数据进行代表年订正。订正结果表明,与参证气象站相比,ERA5和CFSv2数据与测风塔数据的相关性更好。在缺乏合适的气象站数据时,使用ERA5和CFSv2数据作为代表年订正的长期测站数据在阿勒泰地区具有可行性。
Abstract
In this paper, the simulation performance of five sets of reanalysis data of wind resources in Altay prefecture is evaluated, and the applicability of the reanalysis data to correct representative year of this region was also analyzed. The results show that different reanalysis data have different spatial simulation results in Altay prefecture, and CFSv2 and ERA5 data with high resolution have more advantages in spatial simulation, while the JRA55 and NCEP-DOE models have obvious overestimation. In terms of seasonal wind speed, except NCEP-DOE, the other sets of reanalysis data can simulate the seasonal characteristics of wind speed in Altay prefecture, and the simulation in winter is better than that in other seasons. In addition, a wind farm in Altay is taken as an example, and the wind tower data are corrected on a representative year by taking the nearby meteorological station and four sets of reanalysis data as long-term observation stations. The revised results show that ERA5 and CFSv2 data have better correlation with wind tower data than meteorological station. It is feasible to use ERA5 and CFSv2 data as long-term station data to correct representative year of wind with measurement data in Altay prefecture when suitable meteorological station data are lacking.
关键词
风电场 /
风速 /
资源评估 /
再分析数据
Key words
wind farm /
wind speed /
resource assessment /
reanalysis data
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基金
国家重点研发计划（2018YFE0208400）; 国家电网有限公司总部科技项目《面向跨境互联的多能互补新型能源系统关键技术研究》
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