基于WRF-Solar模式和SCA订正的短期辐照度预报研究

商永朋; 郭军红; 宋煜; 刘文娇; 马文静; 李薇

doi:10.19912/j.0254-0096.tynxb.2021-1469

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太阳能学报 ›› 2023, Vol. 44 ›› Issue (5) : 274-279. DOI: 10.19912/j.0254-0096.tynxb.2021-1469

基于WRF-Solar模式和SCA订正的短期辐照度预报研究

商永朋¹, 郭军红¹, 宋煜¹, 刘文娇¹, 马文静², 李薇¹

作者信息 +

RESEARCH ON SHORT-TERM IRRADIANCE PREDICTION BASED ON WRF-SOLAR MODEL AND SCA CORRECTION

Shang Yongpeng¹, Guo Junhong¹, Song Yu¹, Liu Wenjiao¹, Ma Wenjing², Li Wei¹

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文章历史 +

摘要

基于WRF-Solar模式输出的逐时气象因子,针对不同天气类型,结合逐步聚类分析方法（SCA）对逐时辐照度进行模拟和预报。结果显示,结合SCA订正方法大幅减少WRF-Solar的误差,在晴天和晴转多云（多云转晴）天气类型下模拟结果较好。在阴雨天气类型下改进明显,相对误差和均方根误差从64.03%和78.02%降至24.71%和38.02%。结果表明,结合SCA订正方法能够降低WRF-Solar由于天气的随机性及突变性引起的误差,能很好地模拟出逐时辐照度的变化趋势。

Abstract

In this paper, combined with coupled stepwise clustering analysis （SCA）, the real time irradiance of different weather types was simulated and predicted based on the hourly weather factor output from the WRF-Solar model. It is indicated that the combination of the SCA revised coupling model greatly reduces the error of WRF-Solar, and the simulation results are better on sunny days and sunny to cloudy days （cloudy to sunny days）. The improvement is particularly obvious in rainy weather, with the relative error reduced from 64.03% to 24.71% and the root mean square error reduced from 78.02% to 38.02%. It suggests that the coupled model combined with the SCA revision method can reduce the error of WRF-Solar caused by the randomness and mutation of weather, and can simulate the trend of hourly irradiance magnificently.

导出引用

商永朋, 郭军红, 宋煜, 刘文娇, 马文静, 李薇. 基于WRF-Solar模式和SCA订正的短期辐照度预报研究[J]. 太阳能学报. 2023, 44(5): 274-279 https://doi.org/10.19912/j.0254-0096.tynxb.2021-1469

Shang Yongpeng, Guo Junhong, Song Yu, Liu Wenjiao, Ma Wenjing, Li Wei. RESEARCH ON SHORT-TERM IRRADIANCE PREDICTION BASED ON WRF-SOLAR MODEL AND SCA CORRECTION[J]. Acta Energiae Solaris Sinica. 2023, 44(5): 274-279 https://doi.org/10.19912/j.0254-0096.tynxb.2021-1469

中图分类号： TM615

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