利用中国40个地面台站观测资料对ERA5再分析资料太阳能资源要素进行误差评估,结果表明：ERA5资料与台站资料的地表月水平面总辐射回归方程可决系数为0.999。ERA5资料与各台站资料均方根误差最大值为8.7 MJ/m2,平均值为4.9 MJ/m2;相对均方根误差最大值为2.4%,平均值为1.0%。ERA5资料与各台站资料年际变化误差最大值为19 MJ/m2,平均值为3 MJ/m2;百分比年际变化误差最大值为0.5%,平均值为0.1%。ERA5资料与台站资料稳定度误差最大值为0.013,平均值为0.003;百分比误差最大值为2.9%,平均值为0.8%。ERA5资料与台站资料具有较好的一致性,应用于中国太阳能资源评估是可行的。
Abstract
The error of solar energy resource parameters from ERA5 reanalysis data is evaluated based on parameters from data of 40 ground observation stations around China. The results show that the regression equations’ coefficient of determination （R2） of the monthly surface global horizontal irradiance from ERA5 data against that from stations is 0.999. The maximum and average root mean square error （RMSE） between data from ERA5 and stations are 8.7 MJ/m2 and 4.9 MJ/m2, and the maximum and average relative root mean square error （RRMSE） are 2.4% and 1.0%. The maximum and average error of inter-annual variability （IV） between data from ERA5 and stations are 19 MJ/m2 and 3 MJ/m2, and the maximum and average error of percentage inter-annual variability （PIV） are 0.5% and 0.1%. The maximum and average error of stability between data from ERA5 and stations are 0.013 and 0.003, and the maximum and average percentage errors are 2.9% and 0.8%. ERA5 data is validated in this study to be of good consistency with the observation stations data, and application of ERA5 data to solar energy resource assessment in China is feasible.
关键词
太阳能 /
太阳辐射 /
太阳能资源 /
ERA5 /
年际变化 /
稳定度
Key words
solar energy /
solar radiation /
solar energy resource /
ERA5 /
inter-annual variability /
stability
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基金
国家重点研发计划（2018YFA0605703）
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