为揭示海气交换作用对台风过境全过程水平风速的影响机理,基于MCT耦合平台二次开发,建立了大气WRF模式-海浪SWAN模式-海洋FVCOM模式的实时耦合模拟方法,同时和单一中尺度WRF模式预测结果比对,通过相关性分析确定了海气交换作用对台风水平风速影响的主要环境因素,进而揭示了海气交换作用机制,最终利用主成分分析法研究了台风不同阶段水平风速的海气交换作用综合环境因子影响系数。结果表明：海气交换作用对台风水平风速的影响中起主要作用的环境因子依次为：垂直切变、摩阻速度、海表温度、潜热通量与850 hPa垂直涡度;考虑海气交换作用时综合环境因子对水平风速的影响呈负反馈趋势,台风过境全过程下环境对风速的海气交换作用指标取值分别为：0.206（加速期）、-0.718（强风期）、-0.750（登陆期）。
Abstract
In order to reveal the influence mechanism of sea-air exchange on horizontal wind speed in the whole process of typhoon transit, a real-time coupling simulation method of atmospheric WRF model, wave SWAN model and marine FVCOM model is established based on the secondary development of MCT coupling platform. At the same time, it is compared with the prediction results of single mesoscale WRF model. Through correlation analysis, the main environmental factors affecting the horizontal wind speed of typhoon by sea-air exchange are determined, and then the mechanism of sea-air exchange is revealed. Finally, the comprehensive environmental factor's influence coefficient of sea-air exchange at different stages of typhoon is studied by principal component analysis. The results show that the main environmental factors in the influence of sea-air exchange on Typhoon horizontal wind speed are as follows： vertical shear, friction velocity, sea surface temperature, latent heat flux and 850 hPa vertical vorticity. Considering the sea-air exchange, the influence of comprehensive environmental factors on horizontal wind speed shows a negative feedback trend. The values of the sea-air exchange index of the environment on wind speed in the whole process of typhoon transit are 0.206 （acceleration period）, -0.718 （strong wind period） and -0.750 （landing period）.
关键词
海上风电 /
台风 /
海气交换作用 /
W-S-F实时耦合平台 /
水平风速 /
影响因子
Key words
offshore wind powewr /
typhoon /
air-sea exchange /
W-S-F real-time coupling platform /
horizontal wind speed /
influence factors
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基金
国家重点研发计划（2000YFB4201201）; 国家自然科学基金（52078251; 52108456; 5211101879）; 江苏省自然科学基金（BK20211518; BK20210309）
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