以光伏产业发展与环境支撑体系之间的协同关系评估为主要研究目标,在确定评价指标和利用层次分析法对其进行赋权的基础上,构建二者的耦合协调度模型,计算得到2014—2020年全国总协调度和各个地区的协调度。结果表明：在2014—2020年,全国光伏产业与环境支撑体系的总协调度呈逐年递增趋势;其中,海南与重庆的耦合协调度最低;甘肃、青海与西藏等地高度耦合。为了更好地评估全球气候变暖导致的辐照变化可能给光伏产业发展带来的影响,在运用区域气候模式PRECIS预测得到未来气候变化条件下（RCP4.5与RCP8.5两个情景）辐照量的基础上,计算了气候变化条件下2030—2060年全国总协调度和各个地区的协调度。相较于现状评估结果,未来辐照量的增加、光伏发电技术的不断发展和配套基础设施的逐渐完善,全国的总协调度和各个地区的协调度均高于现状值,在合理的政策支持和技术创新条件下,有望进一步达到高度耦合协调甚至是优质耦合协调状态。
Abstract
In this study, selecting the correlation evaluation between photovoltaic industry development and environment supporting system as the research object, the evaluation model of coupling coordination degree was formulated based on evaluation indicator system and analytic hierarchy process （AHP） method. As a result, the coordination degree at national and regional scale was identified. The obtained results demonstrated that the coordination degree at nationwide shows the growth trend from 2014 to 2020. As for various regions, the coordination degrees of Hainan Province and Chongqing Municipality were the lowest, conversely, those of Gansu, Qinghai and Tibet were at a high level. To better evaluate the possible influence of radiation change caused by global warming on the development of photovoltaic industry, the regional climate model （i. e. PRECIS） was used to predict the radiation quantity at two scenarios （i. e. RCP4.5 and RCP8.5） under climate change. The coordination degree at national and regional scale under climate change from 2030 to 2060 were calculated innovatively. Compared with current evaluation results, the coordination degree was increased as the increase in radiation, the improvement of photovoltaic power generation technology and the perfection of infrastructure. It is expected to realize high and even supper coupling coordination under the condition of reasonable policy support and technological innovation.
关键词
光伏发电 /
环境影响 /
层次分析法 /
耦合协调度 /
区域气候模式
Key words
PV power generation /
environmental effects /
analytic hierarchy process /
coupling coordination degree /
providing regional climates for impacts studies
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基金
国家重点研发计划（2018YFE0208400）,国家电网有限公司总部科技项目《面向跨境互联的多能互补新型能源系统关键技术研究》
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