计及超短期预测误差的风储系统跟踪计划出力控制策略

doi:10.19912/j.0254-0096.tynxb.2022-0908

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 在计划跟踪模式下,为最大化风储系统出力的经济效益,提出风储系统的协调控制方法。首先,基于超短期功率预测,以风电场总收益最大为目标,建立风储系统跟踪计划出力的控制模型;然后,利用超短期功率预测数据和历史实际功率数据,建立基于小波变换和序列到序列（sequence to sequence, seq2seq）的超短期预测功率修正模型,对超短期功率预测数据进行误差修正;最后,将基于超短期功率预测的计划跟踪模型与超短期预测误差修正模型结合,提出一种计及超短期预测误差的风储系统跟踪计划出力的控制策略。仿真结果表明：所提策略能显著提高风电计划跟踪精度和风储系统运行经济性、促进风电的消纳。

关键词: 风电, 储能, 误差修正, 发电计划跟踪, 滚动优化

Abstract: In plan tracking mode, a coordinated control method for the wind storage system is proposed to maximize the economic benefit. Firstly, a wind-storage system plan tracking control model is established based on ultra-short-term power forecast with the objective function of maximizing the total operation profits. Then, an ultra-short-term power prediction correction model is established based on wavelet transform and Sequence to Sequence （seq2seq）. Ultra-short-term power prediction data and historical actual power data are used to correct the power prediction error. Finally, the plan tracking control model and the ultra-short-term prediction error correction model are combined with each other, and then a plan tracking control strategy for wind-storage system is proposed, considering the ultra-short-term forecast error. The simulation results show that the proposed strategy can significantly improve the tracking accuracy of wind power schedule, which increases the operation economy of the wind-storage system and promotes the renewable energy consumption.

Key words: wind power, energy storage, error correction, generation schedule tracking, rolling optimization

中图分类号:

TM614

郭凯杰, 耿光超, 江全元, 李熹宁, 王仁顺. 计及超短期预测误差的风储系统跟踪计划出力控制策略[J]. 太阳能学报, 2023, 44(2): 326-333.

Guo Kaijie, Geng Guangchao, Jiang Quanyuan, Li Xining, Wang Renshun. OUTPUT CONTROL STRATEGY OF WIND STORAGE SYSTEM TRACKING PLAN CONSIDERING ULTRA SHORT TERM PREDICTION ERROR[J]. Acta Energiae Solaris Sinica, 2023, 44(2): 326-333.

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