为定量评估青海省太阳能、风能资源开发潜力,该文基于地形条件、土地利用、生态保护区等地理空间分析,在10 m×10 m空间分辨率上提取光风电站可开发利用区域,考虑了地形条件对装机折减影响及真实电场设计参数,采用1980—2020年MERRA-2再分析数据,评估了青海省光风理论和技术发电潜力,分析了时空格局,识别了开发利用现状。研究表明：1）1980—2020年青海省太阳能多年平均理论发电潜力1881.1 kWh/m2,技术发电潜力301.7 kWh/m2;空间上,呈西高东低的分布格局,且东部变化更为显著;时间上,全省呈波动减少特征,整体下降速率为-337.9亿kWh/a,各地区增减不一,其中果洛和玉树缓慢上升,其他地区呈下降趋势。2）1980—2020年青海省风能多年平均理论发电潜力121.1 kWh/m2,技术发电潜力21.9 kWh/m2;空间上,呈西北高东南低的分布格局,且西南部变化更为显著;时间上,全省呈先增加后减少的趋势特征,整体下降速率为-27.0亿kWh/a,各地区增减不一,其中海西减少最快,玉树有小幅增加。3）青海省太阳能和风能2020年发电量分别为167亿kWh和81亿kWh,分别占技术发电潜力的1.1%和9.2%,仍具有较大挖潜空间。
Abstract
In order to quantitatively assess the power potential of solar and wind resources in Qinghai Province, this paper extracts the exploitable area of solar and wind power stations based on geospatial analysis of topographic condition, land use and ecological protection area at a spatial resolution of 10 m×10 m; considers the impact of topographic condition on the reduction of installed capacity and the real-world parameters for designing a power station; and uses the MERRA-2 reanalysis data from 1980 to 2020 to assess the theoretical and technical potential of solar and wind power, analyze the spatio-temporal pattern, and identify the development and utilization. The results indicate that： 1）the multi-year average theoretical potential of solar power in Qinghai Province is 1881.1 kWh/m2 and the technical potential is 301.7 kWh/m2. In term of spatial distribution, the technical potential is high in the west and low in the east, with more significant changes in the east. In term of temporal evolution, the overall reduction rate is -33.79 billion kWh/a. The trend of evolution is different in different regions, with Guoluo and Yushu showing slowly increasing trends and other regions showing decreasing trends. 2）The multi-year average theoretical potential of wind power in Qinghai Province is 121.1 kWh/m2 and the technical potential is 21.9 kWh/m2. In term of spatial distribution, the technical potential is high in the northwest and low in the southeast, with more significant changes in the southwest. In term of temporal evolution, the overall reduction rate is -2.70 billion kWh/a. The trend of evolution is different in different regions, with the fastest downward trend in Haixi and the slow upward trend in Yushu. 3） The solar and wind power generation in Qinghai province is 16.7 billion and 8.1 billion kWh in 2020, accounting for 1.1% and 9.2% of the technical potential respectively, and there is still a large potential space.
关键词
太阳能 /
风能 /
发电潜力 /
时空分布 /
开发利用
Key words
solar power /
wind power /
power generation potential /
spatio-temporal distribution /
exploitation and utilization
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基金
国家自然科学基金（U2243232）; 青海省重大科技专项（2021-SF-A6; 2021-SF-A7-1）; 青海省基础研究计划项目（2022-ZJ-933Q）
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