基于HPO-VMD和MISMA-DHKELM的短期光伏功率组合预测

王超; 蔺红; 庞晓虹

doi:10.19912/j.0254-0096.tynxb.2022-1225

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太阳能学报 ›› 2023, Vol. 44 ›› Issue (12) : 65-73. DOI: 10.19912/j.0254-0096.tynxb.2022-1225

基于HPO-VMD和MISMA-DHKELM的短期光伏功率组合预测

王超^1,2, 蔺红¹, 庞晓虹²

作者信息 +

SHORT-TERM PHOTOVOLTAIC POWER COMBINATION PREDICTION BASED ON HPO-VMD AND MISMA-DHKELM

Wang Chao^1,2, Lin Hong¹, Pang Xiaohong²

Author information +

文章历史 +

摘要

为提高光伏发电功率的预测精度,提出一种优化变分态分解（VMD）、多策略改进黏菌优化算法（ MISMA）和深度混合核极限学习机（DHKELM）的短期光伏功率组合预测方法。首先,利用VMD分解技术将不同天气类型的功率数据分解成多个模态分量,为避免模态分量间的频率混淆,使用狩猎者（HPO）算法优化VMD的关键参数-分解层数和惩罚因子;然后,针对不同天气类型分解的各分量建立DHKELM 预测模型,并采用 MISMA 优化 DHKELM 模型的超参数;最后,将各模态分量预测结果求和重构作为最终预测结果。利用新疆某光伏电站的实际数据进行实验分析,实验结果表明：该方法在不同天气类型下均能实现较好的预测效果,预测精度明显优于单一预测模型,与其他方法对比,验证了该方法的有效性。

Abstract

To improve the prediction accuracy of photovoltaic power generation, a short-term photovoltaic power combination forecasting method based on optimized variational mode decomposition （VMD）, multi-strategy improved slime mold algorithm （MISMA） and deep hybrid kernel extreme leaning machine （DHKELM） is proposed. Firstly, the VMD decomposition technology is used to decompose the power data of different weather types into multiple modal components. In order to avoid the frequency confusion between modal components, the hunter-prey optimizer （HPO） algorithm is used to optimize the key parameters of VMD-decomposition level and penalty factors. Then DHKELM prediction model is established for each component decomposed by different weather types, and MISMA is used to optimize the hyperparameters of DHKELM model. Finally, the summation and reconstruction of each modal component prediction results are taken as the final prediction results. The actual data of a photovoltaic power station in Xinjiang are used for experimental analysis. The experimental results show that this method can achieve better forecasting effect under different weather types. Its prediction acc uracy is viously better than that of a single prediction model. Compared with other methods, the effectiveness of the method is verified.

导出引用

王超, 蔺红, 庞晓虹. 基于HPO-VMD和MISMA-DHKELM的短期光伏功率组合预测[J]. 太阳能学报. 2023, 44(12): 65-73 https://doi.org/10.19912/j.0254-0096.tynxb.2022-1225

Wang Chao, Lin Hong, Pang Xiaohong. SHORT-TERM PHOTOVOLTAIC POWER COMBINATION PREDICTION BASED ON HPO-VMD AND MISMA-DHKELM[J]. Acta Energiae Solaris Sinica. 2023, 44(12): 65-73 https://doi.org/10.19912/j.0254-0096.tynxb.2022-1225

中图分类号： TM615

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