基于贝叶斯网络时序模拟的综合能源系统可靠性评估

岳宗阳; 魏征; 王凯庆; 温鹏; 贾宇琛; 高立艾

doi:10.19912/j.0254-0096.tynxb.2023-0958

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太阳能学报 ›› 2024, Vol. 45 ›› Issue (10) : 220-230. DOI: 10.19912/j.0254-0096.tynxb.2023-0958

基于贝叶斯网络时序模拟的综合能源系统可靠性评估

岳宗阳¹, 魏征², 王凯庆², 温鹏^1,3, 贾宇琛^3,4, 高立艾^1,3

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RELIABILITY EVALUATION OF INTEGRATED ENERGY SYSTEM BASED ON BAYESIAN NETWORK TIME SERIES SIMULATION

Yue Zongyang¹, Wei Zheng², Wang Kaiqing², Wen Peng^1,3, Jia Yuchen^3,4, Gao Liai^1,3

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文章历史 +

摘要

针对现有可靠性评估方法存在的计算量大以及系统薄弱环节难以识别的问题,提出一种基于贝叶斯网络时序模拟的综合能源系统可靠性评估方法。针对热力子系统网络热能流传输延时及负荷侧热惯性,建立“动态-延时”逻辑关系模型,分析该逻辑下贝叶斯网络时序模拟过程,通过算例验证所建热力子系统贝叶斯网络的正确性。根据电-气-热多能耦合的综合能源系统各元件的逻辑关系,运用改进的贝叶斯网络时序模拟推理算法对综合能源系统的可靠性指标进行评估,并分析多能互补及储能装置对系统可靠性的影响。结果表明：相较于单一运行子系统,在多能流子系统耦合形成的综合能源系统中,各子系统经耦合元件互相进行能量转化,其整体运行可靠性更高。同时可借助贝叶斯网络模型能实现反向诊断的特点,判断出综合能源系统结构弱点所在。

Abstract

Aiming at the problems of large amount of calculation and difficult identification of weak links in existing reliability evaluation methods, an integrated energy system reliability evaluation algorithm based on Bayesian network time series simulation is proposed. The "Dynamic Delay" logical relationship model was established for the thermal energy transmission delay and load thermal inertia in the thermal subsystem network. The inference process of Bayesian network time series simulation was analyzed. Then, based on the logical relationships of the components of the integrated energy system with electric gas thermal coupling, an improved Bayesian network time series simulation inference algorithm was used to evaluate the reliability of the integrated energy system. The simulation results validate the effectiveness of this method and analyze the impact of multi energy complementarity and energy storage devices on system reliability. The results indicate that compared to a single operating subsystem, in an integrated energy system formed by coupling multiple energy flow subsystems, each subsystem undergoes energy conversion through coupling components, resulting in higher overall operational reliability. At the same time, Bayesian networks can be used to diagnose and infer the weak links in the reliability of the integrated energy system, which provides the guidance information for formulating the planning and maintenance plan of the integrated energy system.

导出引用

岳宗阳, 魏征, 王凯庆, 温鹏, 贾宇琛, 高立艾. 基于贝叶斯网络时序模拟的综合能源系统可靠性评估[J]. 太阳能学报. 2024, 45(10): 220-230 https://doi.org/10.19912/j.0254-0096.tynxb.2023-0958

Yue Zongyang, Wei Zheng, Wang Kaiqing, Wen Peng, Jia Yuchen, Gao Liai. RELIABILITY EVALUATION OF INTEGRATED ENERGY SYSTEM BASED ON BAYESIAN NETWORK TIME SERIES SIMULATION[J]. Acta Energiae Solaris Sinica. 2024, 45(10): 220-230 https://doi.org/10.19912/j.0254-0096.tynxb.2023-0958

中图分类号： TM732

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