基于2022年FY-4A地表太阳入射辐射产品和同期地面气象站辐射观测资料,分析FY-4A反演辐射产品在宁夏银川的适用性,探讨其在银川太阳能资源短临预报中的应用情况,结果表明,2022年全年FY-4A整点总辐照度与银川气象站地面观测总辐照度整体变化趋势基本一致,但FY-4A辐照度整体较地面观测偏高6.5%,且其变化幅度小于地面观测;除5、6、12月份外,其他各月FY-4A整点辐照度月平均值均较地面观测高,7—11月份两者差异最大;08:00—10:00和16:00—18:00FY-4A与地面观测辐照度差异较大,11:00—15:00两者差异较小;日照时数小于9 h时,FY-4A辐照度高于地面观测,大于等于9 h时,FY-4A低于地面观测;雨、雾、雪和霾天气下FY-4A辐照度较地面观测高,大风、扬沙、浮尘时FY-4A较地面观测低;基于FY-4A辐射产品的银川太阳能短临预报,随预报时间步长增加,均方根误差呈先缓慢增加后逐渐减小变化趋势,平均相对误差呈逐渐增大变化特点,相关系数无明显波动;全年整点预报时刻来看,12:00、15:00均方根误差略低,13:00、14:00均方根误差略高,4个时刻预报与实测辐照度相关性均较好;夏季预报效果较其他季节差。
Abstract
Based on the surface solar irradiance（SSI） products of FY-4A and the ground observation radiation data, the paper analyzed the applicability of FY-4A SSI products in Yinchuan, Ningxia and its application in the short-term forecast of solar energy resources. The results show that the overall change trend of the irradiance of FY-4A is basically consistent with that of the ground observation at Yinchuan weather station on the hour moment in 2022. Though the irradiance of FY-4A is 6.5% higher than that of ground observation, its variation range is smaller than that of the ground observation. Except for May, June and December, the monthly average irradiance of FY-4A hourly points is higher than that of the ground observation in other months, with the largest difference between July and November. The difference between FY-4A and the ground observation during 00:00—10:00 and 16:00—18:00 is large, while in period 11:00—15:00 is small. When the sunshine hours are less than 9 h, the irradiance of FY-4A is higher than that of the ground observation, and when the sunshine hours are greater than or equal to 9 h, FY-4A is lower than the ground observation. Under the rain, fog, snow and haze weather, the irradiance of FY-4A is higher than that of the ground observation, while under wind, sand and dust condition, it is lower than that of ground observation. The short-term forecast of sol
关键词
太阳辐照度 /
卫星数据 /
地面观测 /
适用性 /
短临预报 /
银川
Key words
solar irradiance /
satellite data /
surface observation /
applicability /
short-term solar radiation forecast /
Yinchuan
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基金
中国气象服务协会气象科技创新平台项目（CMSA2023MB024）; 宁夏自然科学基金项目（2022AAC03676）; 宁夏回族自治区科技创新团队（2024CXTD006）
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