将基于核极限学习机的响应面法应用于筒型基础的入土沉放风险评估,以海域1（安装成功）和海域2（安装失败）某风电场6.45 MW筒型基础为研究对象,采用蒙特卡洛抽样法随机生成地勘静力触探（CPT）中的锥尖阻力（qc）,并用基于CPT推荐值、最大值的方法预测沉放需要压差,以水泵和水压可提供的最大压差为风险控制标准,得到两个机位入土沉放失效概率,评估两个机位的入土沉放风险。结果表明：土体的空间变异性越大,筒型基础入土沉放风险越大。当土体变异系数CV≤0.3,使用CPT推荐值计算各深度的失效概率均小于10-4时,风险较低,可用于指导施工。
Abstract
The response surface method based on the nuclear limit learning machine is applied to the risk assessment of penetration of the bucket foundation, and the 6.45 MW bucket foundation of a wind farm in the sea area1 （successful installation） and the sea area 2 （installation failure） is the object of the study, and the Montecarlo sampling method is used to randomly generate the cone tip resistance （qs） in the geophysical static sounding （CPT）, and the method based on the CPT recommended value and the maximum value is used to predict the sinking required differential pressure, and the maximum differential pressure that can be provided by the pumps is the risk factor. The maximum differential pressure that can be provided is the risk control standard, and the probability of failure of the two machine positions for penetration into soil is obtained to assess the risk of penetration of the two machine positions. The results show that： the greater the spatial variability of the soil body, the greater the probability of the risk of penetration of the bucket foundation. When the coefficient of variation of soil body CV≤0.3, and the failure probability of penetration resistance calculated by using CPT recommended value are less than 10-4, the risk is low and can be used to guide the construction.
关键词
海上风电 /
筒型基础 /
沉放阻力 /
风险分析
Key words
offshore wind power /
bucket foundation /
penetration resistance /
risk analysis
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基金
国家杰出青年科学基金（51825904）; 天津市研究生科研创新项目（2021YJSB132）
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