基于Holt-Winters的锂离子电池容量衰退预测

吴伟丽; 卢双双; 李磊

doi:10.19912/j.0254-0096.tynxb.2023-1550

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太阳能学报 ›› 2025, Vol. 46 ›› Issue (1) : 309-318. DOI: 10.19912/j.0254-0096.tynxb.2023-1550

基于Holt-Winters的锂离子电池容量衰退预测

吴伟丽^1,2, 卢双双^1,2, 李磊^1,2

作者信息 +

HOLT-WINTERS BASED PREDICTION OF LITHIUM-ION BATTERY CAPACITY FADING

Wu Weili^1,2, Lu Shuangshuang^1,2, Li Lei^1,2

Author information +

文章历史 +

摘要

针对目前电池容量长期衰退趋势预测方法精度低、跟踪效果差的问题,提出一种基于序列分解和三次指数平滑的电池容量预测方法,实现电池容量快速下降阶段退化趋势的有效跟踪。对于具有容量回升现象的电池容量序列首先采用自适应白噪声完备集成经验模态分解（CEEMDAN）将其分解为波动分量和趋势分量,再对各分量分别搭建霍尔特-温特斯（Holt- Winters）季节性、线性模型进行预测,最后将预测结果叠加实现容量退化趋势预测;对容量回升现象较弱的容量序列直接搭建Holt-Winters无季节性模型进行预测。采用多种不同电池退化数据集对算法性能进行验证,结果表明所提方法的鲁棒性良好且预测精度有较大提升,可为锂离子电池容量的退化趋势预测提供技术参考。

Abstract

Aiming at the problem of low accuracy and poor tracking effect of the current battery capacity long-term decline trend prediction method, a battery capacity prediction method based on sequence decomposition and cubic exponential smoothing is proposed, which realizes the effective tracking of the degradation trend in the rapid decline stage of battery capacity. For the battery capacity sequence with capacity recovery phenomenon, firstly, the adaptive white noise complete ensemble empirical mode decomposition （CEEMDAN） is used to decompose it into fluctuation component and trend component, and then Holt-Winters seasonal and linear models are built for each component to predict. Finally, the prediction results are superimposed to realize the capacity degradation trend prediction. The Holt-Winters non-seasonal model is directly built to predict the capacity sequence with weak capacity recovery. A variety of different battery degradation datasets are used to verify the performance of the algorithm. The results show that the proposed method has good robustness and the prediction accuracy is greatly improved, which provides a technical reference for the prediction of the degradation trend of lithium-ion battery capacity.

导出引用

吴伟丽, 卢双双, 李磊. 基于Holt-Winters的锂离子电池容量衰退预测[J]. 太阳能学报. 2025, 46(1): 309-318 https://doi.org/10.19912/j.0254-0096.tynxb.2023-1550

Wu Weili, Lu Shuangshuang, Li Lei. HOLT-WINTERS BASED PREDICTION OF LITHIUM-ION BATTERY CAPACITY FADING[J]. Acta Energiae Solaris Sinica. 2025, 46(1): 309-318 https://doi.org/10.19912/j.0254-0096.tynxb.2023-1550

中图分类号： TM912.9

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