基于MODWT-CEEMDAN-LSTM的短期光伏功率区间预测模型

陈船宇; 熊国江; 方厚康; 罗颖勋

doi:10.19912/j.0254-0096.tynxb.2023-1578

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太阳能学报 ›› 2025, Vol. 46 ›› Issue (2) : 416-424. DOI: 10.19912/j.0254-0096.tynxb.2023-1578

基于MODWT-CEEMDAN-LSTM的短期光伏功率区间预测模型

陈船宇¹, 熊国江^1,2, 方厚康¹, 罗颖勋¹

作者信息 +

SHORT-TERM PHOTOVOLTAIC POWER INTERVAL PREDICTION MODEL BASED ON MODWT-CEEMDAN-LSTM

Chen Chuanyu¹, Xiong Guojiang^1,2, Fang Houkang¹, Luo Yingxun¹

Author information +

文章历史 +

摘要

针对光伏功率的波动性、随机性、间歇性,提出一种基于最大重叠小波变换（MODWT）、自适应噪声完备集合经验模态分解（CEEMDAN）、长短期记忆网络（LSTM）的光伏功率短期区间预测模型。首先利用MODWT和CEEMDAN将光伏功率时间序列进行二次分解得到本征模态函数（IMF）分量;再将这些IMF分量分别输入进LSTM进行分量预测并将分量预测结果重构得到点预测结果;最后利用分位数回归对点预测结果进行建模后得到区间预测结果。实际算例表明,时频域分解方法与频域分解方法的结合,使得该模型在3种天气情况下的光伏功率点预测和区间预测均表现出优异的鲁棒性和准确性。

Abstract

In response to the volatility, randomness, and intermittency of photovoltaic power, this study proposes a short-term interval prediction model based on the maximum overlapping discrete wavelet transform（MODWT）, complementary empirical mode decomposition with adaptive noise（CEEMDAN）, and long short-term memory network（LSTM）. Firstly, MODWT and CEEMDAN are used to decompose the PV power time series quadratically to obtain the intrinsic mode functions （IMF） components, Then,these IMF components are inputted into the LSTM for component prediction and the component prediction results are reconstructed to obtain the point prediction result; Finally, quantile regression is used to model the point prediction results and the interval prediction results are obtained. Finally, the interval prediction results are obtained by modeling the point prediction results with quantile regression. Practical examples show that the combination of the time-frequency domain decomposition method and the frequency domain decomposition method makes the model show excellent robustness and accuracy in the point prediction and interval prediction of PV power under the three weather conditions.

导出引用

陈船宇, 熊国江, 方厚康, 罗颖勋. 基于MODWT-CEEMDAN-LSTM的短期光伏功率区间预测模型[J]. 太阳能学报. 2025, 46(2): 416-424 https://doi.org/10.19912/j.0254-0096.tynxb.2023-1578

Chen Chuanyu, Xiong Guojiang, Fang Houkang, Luo Yingxun. SHORT-TERM PHOTOVOLTAIC POWER INTERVAL PREDICTION MODEL BASED ON MODWT-CEEMDAN-LSTM[J]. Acta Energiae Solaris Sinica. 2025, 46(2): 416-424 https://doi.org/10.19912/j.0254-0096.tynxb.2023-1578

中图分类号： TM615

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