基于系统累积概率函数的指数化近似,提出一种考虑风电与负荷相关性的风电可信度解析模型。首先,通过不同负荷状态条件下的累积概率函数,构建考虑风电与负荷相关性的含风电电力系统可靠性指标解析式。然后通过累积概率函数的递推公式,使风电接入后的系统可靠性函数可基于风电接入前的系统累积概率函数表示。最后,对风电接入前累积概率函数指数化近似,并令风电接入前后系统可靠性指标相等,化简得到风电可信度的解析式。基于修改后RBTS系统的算例验证该文模型假设的合理性;同时与现有未考虑相关性的解析法相比,该文模型能有效考虑相关性,显著提高解析法的精度。
Abstract
An analytical model for wind power capacity credit that accounts for the correlation between wind power and load is proposed in this paper, based on the exponential approximation of the system cumulative probability function （abbreviated as the cumulative probability function）. Firstly, through the cumulative probability function under different load conditions, an analytical formula for the reliability index of a power system incorporating wind power, while considering the correlation between wind power and load, is developed. Then, the system reliability function after integrating wind power is expressed in terms of the cumulative probability function before integrating wind power, utilizing the recursive formula of the cumulative probability function. Finally, using the exponential of the cumulative probability function of the system before integrating wind power and equating the system reliability index before and after integrating wind power, the analytical formula of wind power credibility is obtained through simplification. Modified RBTS is utilized to verify the correctness of the proposed model, and the case study indicates that the proposed model can effectively consider the correlation, and significantly improve accuracy, compared with the existing analytical model without considering correlation.
关键词
风力发电 /
可靠性 /
解析模型 /
相关性 /
容量可信度
Key words
wind power /
reliability /
analytical models /
correlation /
capacity credit
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