多状态可再生能源分布式发电系统可靠性评估

温艳清; 郑晓亚; 陈剑慧; 张慧; 刘宝亮; 邱青安

doi:10.19912/j.0254-0096.tynxb.2023-1879

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太阳能学报 ›› 2025, Vol. 46 ›› Issue (3) : 199-206. DOI: 10.19912/j.0254-0096.tynxb.2023-1879

多状态可再生能源分布式发电系统可靠性评估

温艳清¹, 郑晓亚², 陈剑慧², 张慧¹, 刘宝亮¹, 邱青安³

作者信息 +

RELIABILITY EVALUATION OF MULTI-STATE RENEWABLE ENERGY DISTRIBUTED GENERATION SYSTEMS

Wen Yanqing¹, Zheng Xiaoya², Chen Jianhui², Zhang Hui¹, Liu Baoliang¹, Qiu Qing’an³

Author information +

文章历史 +

摘要

针对可再生能源发电系统可靠性建模中二值状态局限性的问题,根据发电系统输出功率和用户电力负载动态变化的特征,构建太阳能光伏发电系统、风力发电系统、用户电力负载相互交叉组合的多状态马尔可夫过程模型,运用聚合随机过程理论,推导出度量系统可靠性的两个重要指标：可用度和供电不足的平均时间。最后,通过数值算例验证模型的正确性和适用性。

Abstract

In order to overcome the limitation of binary state in reliability modeling of renewable energy power generation systems, Multi-state Markov process models are constructed for the cross combination of solar photovoltaic power generation system, wind power generation system, and user power load based on the characteristics of dynamic changes in output power and user power load of the power generation system. Two important reliability indexes, availability and loss of load expectation, are derived by employing aggregated stochastic process theory. Finally, the correctness and applicability of the model are verified by numerical examples. The results show that the proposed model can provide a good theoretical basis for the reliability modeling of renewable energy power generation systems, and a more accurate reliability evaluation of power supply systems can be also achieved by using the proposed model and techniques.

导出引用

温艳清, 郑晓亚, 陈剑慧, 张慧, 刘宝亮, 邱青安. 多状态可再生能源分布式发电系统可靠性评估[J]. 太阳能学报. 2025, 46(3): 199-206 https://doi.org/10.19912/j.0254-0096.tynxb.2023-1879

Wen Yanqing, Zheng Xiaoya, Chen Jianhui, Zhang Hui, Liu Baoliang, Qiu Qing’an. RELIABILITY EVALUATION OF MULTI-STATE RENEWABLE ENERGY DISTRIBUTED GENERATION SYSTEMS[J]. Acta Energiae Solaris Sinica. 2025, 46(3): 199-206 https://doi.org/10.19912/j.0254-0096.tynxb.2023-1879

中图分类号： O213 TM711

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