氢能产业高质量发展的系统动力学建模与分析

聂荟扬; 李雷

doi:10.19912/j.0254-0096.tynxb.2024-0017

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太阳能学报 ›› 2025, Vol. 46 ›› Issue (7) : 491-502. DOI: 10.19912/j.0254-0096.tynxb.2024-0017

第二十七届中国科协年会学术论文

氢能产业高质量发展的系统动力学建模与分析

聂荟扬, 李雷

作者信息 +

SYSTEM DYNAMICS MODELING AND ANALYSIS ON HIGH QUALITY DEVELOPMENT OF HYDROGEN ENERGY INDUSTRY

Nie Huiyang, Li Lei

Author information +

文章历史 +

摘要

目前中国氢能产业仍处于起步阶段,发展基础较为薄弱,供需两侧对接不畅,如何推进氢能产业高质量发展已成为能源改革进程中亟待解决的问题。在考虑氢能供需的基础上,构建系统动力学模型模拟了2021—2035年中国氢能发展状况,并以此为参照探讨推进可再生能源制氢就近消纳、推进氢燃料电池车辆应用和推进技术进步3种调控情景对氢能发展的影响机制。通过以上研究,为中国氢能产业高质量发展提出针对性的政策建议。

Abstract

China’s hydrogen energy industry is currently in its initial stages, characterized by a weak foundation and inadequate coordination between supply and demand. Advancing the high-quality development of the hydrogen energy sector has emerged as a critical issue within the energy reform landscape. To address the challenges of supply and demand in the hydrogen energy sector, a system dynamics model was formulated to simulate China’s hydrogen energy development trajectory from 2021 to 2035. By leveraging this simulation, the study delved into the ramifications of three regulatory scenarios—namely, promoting hydrogen production from renewable sources for local consumption, accelerating the adoption of hydrogen fuel cell vehicles, and fostering technological advancements—on the evolution of the hydrogen energy industry in China. This research culminates in targeted policy recommendations aimed at propelling the high-quality advancement of China’s burgeoning emerging hydrogen energy industry.

导出引用

聂荟扬, 李雷. 氢能产业高质量发展的系统动力学建模与分析[J]. 太阳能学报. 2025, 46(7): 491-502 https://doi.org/10.19912/j.0254-0096.tynxb.2024-0017

Nie Huiyang, Li Lei. SYSTEM DYNAMICS MODELING AND ANALYSIS ON HIGH QUALITY DEVELOPMENT OF HYDROGEN ENERGY INDUSTRY[J]. Acta Energiae Solaris Sinica. 2025, 46(7): 491-502 https://doi.org/10.19912/j.0254-0096.tynxb.2024-0017

中图分类号： TK91 F206

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