以异质结组件为研究对象,进行多种湿热条件下的加速老化试验,基于老化试验数据,采用可靠性领域的Peck模型分析组件功率衰减过程,然后使用Wiener过程结合Peck模型进行组件寿命概率密度函数的计算,得到异质结组件在双85试验条件下的运行时间平均值。对概率密度函数进行积分得到可靠度函数,描述异质结组件在该试验条件下的失效分布特征。最后,利用得到的Peck-Wiener模型参数,建立任意温湿度下的组件寿命预测模型。通过寿命预测模型发现,在温湿度较低的大庆,组件的预测寿命为33 a;而在相对相对湿度超过80%的海南,组件的预测寿命大大降低。同时,将（50 ℃/45% RH）时的预测结果与实际环境数据集进行对比,验证本文所建立的Peck-Wiener模型的有效性与高精度。
Abstract
Using heterojunction with intrinsic thin-layer (HJT) modules as the research object, the accelerated aging test under various damp-heat (DH) conditions is carried out. Based on the aging test data, the Peck model was used to describe the power degradation process, and then combining the wiener process and the Peck model, calculating the lifetime probability density function to obtain the mean values of the operation time under the double 85 experimental conditions. The reliability function is derived by integrating the probability density function, which describes the failure distribution characteristics of the HJT modules. Finally, the parameters of Peck-Wiener model are used to establish the module lifetime prediction under arbitrary temperature and humidity, which reveals that the predicted lifetime of the module is 33 years in Daqing, where the temperature and humidity are low. And the lifetime is greatly reduced in Hainan, where the relative humidity exceeds 80%. Meanwhile, the prediction results at 50 ℃/45% RH are compared with the actual environmental dataset, which verifies the effectiveness and high accuracy of the Peck-Wiener model developed in this thesis.
关键词
晶体硅异质结组件 /
加速湿热试验 /
Peck模型 /
Wiener过程 /
寿命预测
Key words
HJT module /
accelerated damp heat experiment /
Peck model /
Wiener process /
lifetime prediction
{{custom_sec.title}}
{{custom_sec.title}}
{{custom_sec.content}}
参考文献
[1] AL MAHDI H, LEAHY P G, ALGHOUL M, et al.A review of photovoltaic module failure and degradation mechanisms: causes and detection techniques[J]. Solar, 2024, 4(1): 43-82.
[2] 杨煜豪, 刘文柱, 张丽平, 等. 晶硅异质结太阳电池nc-Si: H/nc-SiOx: H叠层窗口层研究[J]. 太阳能学报, 2023, 44(8): 203-207.
YANG Y H, LIU W Z, ZHANG L P, et al.Research on nc-Si: H/nc-SiOx: H stacked thin films as silicon heterojunction solar cell window layer[J]. Acta energiae solaris sinica, 2023, 44(8): 203-207.
[3] 孟凡英, 吕肖前, 李晖, 等. 低温沉积氧化锌薄膜电学特性[J]. 太阳能学报, 2009, 30(10): 1143-1146.
MENG F Y, LYU X Q, LI H, et al.Electrical properties of ZnO thin films deposited at low temperature[J]. Acta energiae solaris sinica, 2009, 30(10): 1143-1146.
[4] 沈磊磊, 孟凡英, 石建华, 等. 高迁移率IWO薄膜特性及其在薄膜硅/晶体硅异质结太阳电池中的应用研究[J]. 太阳能学报, 2018, 39(5): 1329-1334.
SHEN L L, MENG F Y, SHI J H, et al.Study of high mobility IWO thin films and its application to SHJ solar cells[J]. Acta energiae solaris sinica, 2018, 39(5): 1329-1334.
[5] MENG F Y, SHI J H, LIU Z X, et al.High mobility transparent conductive W-doped In2O3 thin films prepared at low substrate temperature and its application to solar cells[J]. Solar energy materials and solar cells, 2014, 122: 70-74.
[6] 沈辉. 基于异质结光伏组件的系统设计方案[J]. 上海电力大学学报, 2023, 39(3): 271-274, 280.
SHEN H.System design solution based on heterojunction solar cell[J]. Journal of Shanghai University of Electric Power, 2023, 39(3): 271-274, 280.
[7] INO Y, ASAO S, SHIRASAWA K, et al.Effect of soldering on the module degradation along bus bar in DH test and PCT for crystalline Si PV modules[C]//2018 IEEE 7th World Conference on Photovoltaic Energy Conversion (WCPEC)(A Joint Conference of 45th IEEE PVSC, 28th PVSEC & 34th EU PVSEC). Waikoloa, HI, USA, 2018: 3552-3557.
[8] PARK H, JEONG J, SHIN E, et al.A reliability study of silicon heterojunction photovoltaic modules exposed to damp heat testing[J]. Microelectronic engineering, 2019, 216: 111081.
[9] 孙晓, 怀朝君, 胡旦, 等. 晶体硅光伏组件功率衰减与评估方法研究[J]. 太阳能学报, 2016, 37(6): 1373-1378.
SUN X, HUAI C J, HU D, et al.Study of power degradation and evaluate process of crystalline silicon PV modules[J]. Acta energiae solaris sinica, 2016, 37(6): 1373-1378.
[10] NÚÑEZ N, GONZÁLEZ J R, VÁZQUEZ M, et al. Evaluation of the reliability of high concentrator GaAs solar cells by means of temperature accelerated aging tests[J]. Progress in photovoltaics: research and applications, 2013, 21(5): 1104-1113.
[11] KOEHL M, HOFFMANN S, WIESMEIER S.Evaluation of damp-heat testing of photovoltaic modules[J]. Progress in photovoltaics: research and applications, 2017, 25(2): 175-183.
[12] SINHA A, QIAN J D, HURST K, et al.UV-induced degradation of high-efficiency solar cells with different architectures[C]//2020 47th IEEE Photovoltaic Specialists Conference (PVSC). Calgary, AB, Canada, 2020: 1990-1991.
[13] WANG X.Wiener processes with random effects for degradation data[J]. Journal of multivariate analysis, 2010, 101(2): 340-351.
[14] SI X S, WANG W B, HU C H, et al.A Wiener-process-based degradation model with a recursive filter algorithm for remaining useful life estimation[J]. Mechanical systems and signal processing, 2013, 35(1/2): 219-237.
[15] NUÑEZ N, VAZQUEZ M, ORLANDO V, et al. Semi-quantitative temperature accelerated life test (ALT) for the reliability qualification of concentrator solar cells and cell on carriers[J]. Progress in photovoltaics: research and applications, 2015, 23(12): 1857-1866.
[16] HALLBERG Ö, PECK D S.Recent humidity accelerations, a base for testing standards[J]. Quality and reliability engineering international, 1991, 7(3): 169-180.
[17] WHITMORE G A.Estimating degradation by a Wiener diffusion process subject to measurement error[J]. Lifetime data analysis, 1995, 1(3): 307-319.
[18] ESPINET-GONZÁLEZ P, ALGORA C, NÚÑEZ N, et al. Temperature accelerated life test on commercial concentrator III-V triple-junction solar cells and reliability analysis as a function of the operating temperature[J]. Progress in photovoltaics: research and applications, 2015, 23(5): 559-569.
[19] 樊静, 钱政, 王婧怡. 基于湿热试验的光伏组件功率衰减与使用寿命研究[J]. 计算机测量与控制, 2019, 27(4): 249-253.
FAN J, QIAN Z, WANG J Y.Study on power degradation and service lifetime of photovoltaic modules based on damp-heat test[J]. Computer measurement & control, 2019, 27(4): 249-253.
[20] HASSAN DAHER D, GAILLARD L, MÉNÉZO C. Experimental assessment of long-term performance degradation for a PV power plant operating in a desert maritime climate[J]. Renewable energy, 2022, 187: 44-55.
[21] 中国气象数据网[EB/OL]. (2024-03-21).[2024-03-21]. https://data.cma.cn/data/cdcindex/cid/0b9164954813c573.html.
China Meteorological Data Service Centre[EB/OL]. https://data.cma.cn/data/cdcindex/cid/0b9164954813c573.html.
[22] NASA. Power data access viewer[EB/OL]. (2024-03-22).[2024-03-22]. https://power.larc.nasa.gov/data-access-viewer/.
[23] 潘进军, 申彦波, 边泽强, 等. 气象要素对太阳能电池板温度的影响[J]. 应用气象学报, 2014, 25(2): 150-157.
PAN J J, SHEN Y B, BIAN Z Q, et al.Effects of meteorological elements on solar cell temperature[J]. Journal of applied meteorological science, 2014, 25(2): 150-157.
基金
中国国防科技重点实验室基金（6142804220104; 61428040202）
PDF(3471 KB)
