长三角区域光伏发电功率预测模型适用性评估&#x02014;&#x02014;以浙江省金华市为例

徐崇斌; 陈前; 孙晓敏; 张晓波; 李国帅; 左欣

doi:10.19912/j.0254-0096.tynxb.2024-0501

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太阳能学报 ›› 2025, Vol. 46 ›› Issue (8) : 293-298. DOI: 10.19912/j.0254-0096.tynxb.2024-0501

长三角区域光伏发电功率预测模型适用性评估——以浙江省金华市为例

徐崇斌^1,2, 陈前^1,2, 孙晓敏^1,2, 张晓波³, 李国帅², 左欣^1,2

作者信息 +

APPLICABILITY EVALUATION OF PHOTOVOLTAIC POWER GENERATION PREDICTION MODEL IN YANGTZE RIVER DELTA REGION： A CASE STUDY OF JINHUA CITY, ZHEJIANG PROVINCE

Xu Chongbin^1,2, Chen Qian^1,2, Sun Xiaomin^1,2, Zhang Xiaobo³, Li Guoshuai², Zuo Xin^1,2

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文章历史 +

摘要

光伏发电过程受气象因素、地理位置等外部环境因素的影响较大,具有显著的不确定性。该文利用金华市6个光伏电站的发电功率数据,使用不同预测模型进行对比分析,证明邻近发电站对于光伏发电功率预测的支持性作用。研究表明：处于同一区域之间的光伏电站受到气象环境因素影响,具有相似的趋势; 2）基于深度学习进行时间序列预测无需手动提取特征和熟悉整个发电过程,通过数据驱动和模型训练,能够捕捉到功率曲线的变化趋势,基于Transformer的Crossformer和PatchTST更适合应用到光伏发电功率预测任务中。

Abstract

The photovoltaic power generation process is significantly affected by external environmental factors such as meteorological conditions and geographic location, leading to pronounced uncertainty. This article leverages the power generation data from six photovoltaic power stations in Jinhua City and employs various prediction models for comparative analysis, to analyze and demonstrate the supportive role neighby power stations in the predicton of photovoltaic power generation. The study indicates that： 1） Photovoltaic power stations located within the same region are affected by meteorological environmental factors and exhibit similar trends. 2） Time series forecasting based on deep learning obviates the need for manual feature extraction or an intricate understanding of the entire power generation process. Instead, employing a data-driven approach and model training can capture the changing trends of the power curves. Transformer-based models like Crossformer and PatchTST are more aptly suited for the task of predicting photovoltaic power output.

导出引用

徐崇斌, 陈前, 孙晓敏, 张晓波, 李国帅, 左欣. 长三角区域光伏发电功率预测模型适用性评估——以浙江省金华市为例[J]. 太阳能学报. 2025, 46(8): 293-298 https://doi.org/10.19912/j.0254-0096.tynxb.2024-0501

Xu Chongbin, Chen Qian, Sun Xiaomin, Zhang Xiaobo, Li Guoshuai, Zuo Xin. APPLICABILITY EVALUATION OF PHOTOVOLTAIC POWER GENERATION PREDICTION MODEL IN YANGTZE RIVER DELTA REGION： A CASE STUDY OF JINHUA CITY, ZHEJIANG PROVINCE[J]. Acta Energiae Solaris Sinica. 2025, 46(8): 293-298 https://doi.org/10.19912/j.0254-0096.tynxb.2024-0501

中图分类号： TM615

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