开发一种基于高时空分辨率气象数据的时空模拟方法,以精准确定任意位置光伏系统的最佳安装倾角,并在江苏省进行实证分析。结果表明,设计算法的模拟输出与实际测量数据高度相关,决定系数高达0.9619,相对均方根误差为13.4%。江苏省的光伏最优倾角从南到北逐渐增加,年最佳倾角介于25°~31°之间,夏季倾角最低可至5°、冬季最高可达49°。相比于年固定倾角,季节性和逐月调整倾角分别提升发电效率3.56%和4.33%,特别是在北部区域,由于直接太阳辐照度比例更高,倾角调整产生的发电增量更显著。当考虑光伏矩阵布设的土地成本、遮挡损失等因素时,使收益最大化的最佳倾角会有所不同,但整体空间格局基本不变,倾角的具体调整随市场经济要素的波动而变化。
Abstract
In this study, we develop a spatiotemporal simulation approach based on high-resolution meteorological data to accurately determine the optimal tilt angle of PV systems at any location was developed, with a validation in Jiangsu Province. The results indicate that the analog output of the designed algorithm is highly correlated with the actual measurement data, with a coefficient of determination of 0.9619 and a relative root mean square error of 13.4%. The optimal PV tilt angle in Jiangsu Province increases gradually from south to north, with annual optimal tilt angles ranging from 25° to 31°. Seasonally, the tilt angle can be as low as 5° in summer and as high as 49° in winter. Compared to an annual fixed tilt angle, adjusting the tilt angle seasonally and month-to-month can improve power generation efficiency by 3.56% and 4.33%, respectively. This improvement is particularly significant in the northern region, where the increase in power generation due to tilt angle adjustments is more substantial because of the higher proportion of direct solar radiation. The optimal tilt angle also varies when considering factors such as land costs for PV array deployment and shading losses, though the overall spatial pattern remains similar. Specific adjustments fluctuate with market changes.
关键词
光伏 /
空间分布 /
太阳能 /
优化算法 /
最优倾角 /
时空模拟
Key words
photovoltaics /
spatial distribution /
solar energy /
optimization algorithms /
optimum tilt angle /
space-time simulation
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基金
信产天津普迅科技项目（526810240004）
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