基于非线性退化模型动态校准的光伏组件剩余寿命预测方法

陈伟; 吴燕; 裴婷婷; 沈泓池

doi:10.19912/j.0254-0096.tynxb.2024-0605

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太阳能学报 ›› 2025, Vol. 46 ›› Issue (8) : 439-446. DOI: 10.19912/j.0254-0096.tynxb.2024-0605

基于非线性退化模型动态校准的光伏组件剩余寿命预测方法

陈伟, 吴燕, 裴婷婷, 沈泓池

作者信息 +

REMAINING LIFETIME PREDICTION OF PHOTOVOLTAIC MODULES BASED ON DYNAMIC CALIBRATION OF NONLINEAR DEGRADATION MODELS

Chen Wei, Wu Yan, Pei Tingting, Shen Hongchi

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文章历史 +

摘要

提出一种基于考虑随机效应的非线性维纳退化模型动态校准的光伏组件剩余寿命预测方法。首先,建立考虑参数随机性的非线性维纳退化模型,通过离线优化和在线更新估计模型参数。然后,基于非线性退化模型对光伏组件性能衰退状态进行预测,再建立退化状态预测误差模型对非线性模型进行补偿并进行参数更新,得到校准后的退化模型,在此基础上预测光伏组件剩余寿命。最后通过实例分析验证所提方法的有效性和可行性。

Abstract

This paper presents a method for forecasting the remaining lifetime of PV modules based on the dynamic calibration of a nonlinear Wiener degradation model that takes into account random effects. Initially, a nonlinear Wiener degenerate model considering the stochasticity of the parameters is developed, and the model parameters are estimated by offline optimization and online updating. After that, based on the nonlinear degradation model to predict the PV module performance degradation state, then establish the degradation state prediction error model to compensate for the nonlinear model, and carry out parameter updating to get the calibrated degradation model, on the basis of which to predict the residual lifetime of PV module. Lastly, the validity and feasibility of the proposed method are proved by case analysis.

导出引用

陈伟, 吴燕, 裴婷婷, 沈泓池. 基于非线性退化模型动态校准的光伏组件剩余寿命预测方法[J]. 太阳能学报. 2025, 46(8): 439-446 https://doi.org/10.19912/j.0254-0096.tynxb.2024-0605

Chen Wei, Wu Yan, Pei Tingting, Shen Hongchi. REMAINING LIFETIME PREDICTION OF PHOTOVOLTAIC MODULES BASED ON DYNAMIC CALIBRATION OF NONLINEAR DEGRADATION MODELS[J]. Acta Energiae Solaris Sinica. 2025, 46(8): 439-446 https://doi.org/10.19912/j.0254-0096.tynxb.2024-0605

中图分类号： TM615

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