利用实测数据,分析量化研究近30 a青藏高原辐射等太阳能发电关键气象要素的变化特征及其对太阳能发电的影响及程度。研究发现：1）近30 a来,青藏高原年总辐射辐照度呈明显的减小趋势,年净辐射略呈增加趋势,垂直直接辐射和净辐射均呈明显的减小趋势,散射辐射和反射辐射呈明显的增加趋势。2）近30 年来,青藏高原跟踪式和固定式太阳电池温度均呈明显的增加趋势,太阳电池气象因子折减系数也呈增加趋势。3）近30 年来,由于人类活动增加和气候变化的共同影响,青藏高原地区云量和降水量增加（大气中水汽分子增加）,能见度降低（大气中气溶胶颗粒增加）,导致日照时数减少,是直接辐射呈减少趋势的直接原因;人为建筑物增加,下垫面变化使得辐射反射特性改变等是造成高原地表总辐射和直接辐射呈减小趋势、散射辐射和反射辐射呈增加趋势的主要原因。高原气温呈明显的增加趋势,使得太阳电池温度升高,其气象因子折减系数呈增加趋势。
Abstract
This paper uses measured data to analyze and quantitatively study the variation characteristics of key meteorological elements such as radiation for photovoltaic utilization on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau in the past 30 years and their impact and extent on photovoltaic utilization. The research finds that: 1） During the past 30 years, in the Tibetan Plateau, the annual total solar irradiance showed a significant decreasing trend, the annual net radiation showed a slight increasing trend, the vertical direct radiation and net radiation show a significant decreasing trend, and the scattered radiation and reflected radiation show a significant increasing trend. 2） In the past 30 years, the temperature of tracked and fixed solar cells on the Tibetan Plateau has shown a significant increasing trend, and its reduction coefficient of meteorological factors has also shown an increasing trend. 3） Compared with the increase in wind speed which enhances the heat dissipation capacity of solar cells, the rise in air temperature makes the solar cells more capable of heating up. In the past nearly 30 years, due to the combined impact of increasing human activities and climate change, the increase of cloud cover and precipitation (the increase of water vapor molecules in the atmosphere） and the decrease of visibility (the increase of aerosol particles in the atmosphere） in the Tibetan Plateau have led to the decrease in sunshine hours, which is the direct cause of the decrease in direct radiation. The main reasons for the decrease trend of total radiation and direct radiation on the plateau surface, and the increase trend of scattered radiation and reflected radiation are man-made buildings increased and the change of underlying surface’s reflection characteristics. The temperature of the plateau showed an obvious increasing trend, which increases the temperature of solar cells, and the reduction coefficient of meteorological factors showed an increasing trend.
关键词
太阳能 /
气候变化 /
太阳电池 /
温度 /
气象因子折减率
Key words
solar energy /
climate change /
solar cell /
temperature /
reduction rate of meteorological factors
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基金
第二次青藏高原综合科学考察研究任务八专题4清洁能源现状与远景评价（2019QZKK0804）; 新疆“天池英才”引进计划（2023）
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