基于风光概率预测的可再生能源制氨系统容量优化配置方法

茆美琴; 陶伟鹏; 武继训; 汪海宁; 邹绍琨

doi:10.19912/j.0254-0096.tynxb.2024-0636

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太阳能学报 ›› 2025, Vol. 46 ›› Issue (8) : 644-655. DOI: 10.19912/j.0254-0096.tynxb.2024-0636

基于风光概率预测的可再生能源制氨系统容量优化配置方法

茆美琴¹, 陶伟鹏¹, 武继训¹, 汪海宁¹, 邹绍琨²

作者信息 +

CAPACITY CONFIGURATION OPTIMIZATION FOR RENEWABLE POWER AMMONIA PROVDCTION SYSTEM BASED ON WIND AND SOLAR PROBABILITY PREDICTION

Mao Meiqin¹, Tao Weipeng¹, Wu Jixun¹, Wang Haining¹, Zou Shaokun²

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文章历史 +

摘要

面向GW级大规模RePtA系统,建立基于Copula理论的风光概率预测模型,并综合考虑安装地点、储能配置策略与运行策略对系统容量的优化配置的影响,提出可再生能源制氨（renewable power to ammonia,RePtA）系统双层优化配置模型。该模型以极小化单位氨成本为目标函数,优化配置风电系统、光伏系统、电解制氢系统、化学储能系统和储氢系统的容量,并采用遗传算法对优化模型进行求解。以GW级RePtA系统为例,定量分析和比较了5类典型安装地点配置不同储能的情况下对系统最优配置以及经济性的影响。

Abstract

In this paper, the wind and solar probability prediction models based on Copula theory are established, and a two-level capacity optimization configuration model of the main components for a GW-scale renewable power to ammonia（RePtA） systems is proposed comprehensively considering the impact of installation sites, the strategies of energy systems configuration, and system operation strategies. By the proposed models, the minimum unit ammonia cost is adopted as the objective function considering the operation constraints and strategies of different system configurations and different installation sites to optimize the capacity configurations of main components, such as wind generators, photovoltaic generators, equipment of producing hydrogen by water electrolysis, and energy storages. Taking a GW-level RePtA system as an example, the impact of different energy storage configurations at typical five types of installation sites on the optimal configuration and economic performance of the system are quantitatively analyzed and compared.

导出引用

茆美琴, 陶伟鹏, 武继训, 汪海宁, 邹绍琨. 基于风光概率预测的可再生能源制氨系统容量优化配置方法[J]. 太阳能学报. 2025, 46(8): 644-655 https://doi.org/10.19912/j.0254-0096.tynxb.2024-0636

Mao Meiqin, Tao Weipeng, Wu Jixun, Wang Haining, Zou Shaokun. CAPACITY CONFIGURATION OPTIMIZATION FOR RENEWABLE POWER AMMONIA PROVDCTION SYSTEM BASED ON WIND AND SOLAR PROBABILITY PREDICTION[J]. Acta Energiae Solaris Sinica. 2025, 46(8): 644-655 https://doi.org/10.19912/j.0254-0096.tynxb.2024-0636

中图分类号： TK91

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