基于系统动力学的高比例新能源配电网形态演化模型研究

王绪利; 徐冉; 程啸; 张辉; 石玲; 汤奕

doi:10.19912/j.0254-0096.tynxb.2024-0700

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太阳能学报 ›› 2025, Vol. 46 ›› Issue (8) : 709-716. DOI: 10.19912/j.0254-0096.tynxb.2024-0700

基于系统动力学的高比例新能源配电网形态演化模型研究

王绪利¹, 徐冉¹, 程啸¹, 张辉¹, 石玲², 汤奕²

作者信息 +

RESEARCH ON MORPHOLOGY EVOLUTION MODEL OF DISTRIBUTION NETWORK WITH HIGH-PROPORTION NEW ENERGY BASED ON SYSTEM DYNAMICS

Wang Xuli¹, Xu Ran¹, Cheng Xiao¹, Zhang Hui¹, Shi Ling², Tang Yi²

Author information +

文章历史 +

摘要

首先从政策、市场和技术3个方面分析驱动配电网形态演化的多重因素,然后采用系统动力学方法构建考虑新能源装机容量增长率等多重因素的配电网电源结构演化模型,进而构建考虑网架结构成本和新能源接入能力等多重因素的配电网网架结构演化模型,最后采用东部沿海某省份的相关数据进行仿真分析,验证所提模型的有效性。

Abstract

This paper firstly analyzes the uncertain factors driving the morphology evolution of distribution network from three aspects： policy, market and technology. Then, the system dynamics method is adopted to construct the power source structure evolution model of distribution network which considers multiple factors such as the growth rate of the installed capacity of new energy resources, further, the electric network topology evolution model is constructed with considering multiple factors such as the cost of grid structure and new energy accessing capability of distribution network topology. Finally, the relevant data of a certain province in the eastern coastal region is collected for simulation analysis. The simulation results show that the model proposed in this paper can both well reflect the proportion of new energy in the future distribution network, and predict the evolving direction of the future power grid topology.

导出引用

王绪利, 徐冉, 程啸, 张辉, 石玲, 汤奕. 基于系统动力学的高比例新能源配电网形态演化模型研究[J]. 太阳能学报. 2025, 46(8): 709-716 https://doi.org/10.19912/j.0254-0096.tynxb.2024-0700

Wang Xuli, Xu Ran, Cheng Xiao, Zhang Hui, Shi Ling, Tang Yi. RESEARCH ON MORPHOLOGY EVOLUTION MODEL OF DISTRIBUTION NETWORK WITH HIGH-PROPORTION NEW ENERGY BASED ON SYSTEM DYNAMICS[J]. Acta Energiae Solaris Sinica. 2025, 46(8): 709-716 https://doi.org/10.19912/j.0254-0096.tynxb.2024-0700

中图分类号： TM715

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