以内蒙古某风电场为研究区,利用2019年9月11日19:00—2020年12月31日23:45逐15 min风电机组轮毂高度风速及实际发电功率数据,对上、下爬坡事件进行识别,从爬坡高度、爬坡速率、持续时间以及季节、日变化差异等方面对爬坡事件特征展开分析,并结合电力系统运行风险评估,将爬坡事件划分为极低、低、中、高、极高5类风险等级,进一步确定不同风险爬坡事件可能出现的最大爬坡高度及风速变化。结果表明：上爬坡事件的平均爬坡速率明显高于下爬坡事件,爬坡速率与爬坡时间呈明显反比关系;爬坡事件的爬坡高度具有明显季节变化,春夏两季的平均爬坡高度与爬坡速率均高于秋冬两季;发生高风险上爬坡事件的可能性明显大于高风险下爬坡事件,存在发生极高风险下爬坡事件的可能,不同风险下上爬坡事件与下爬坡事件的最大爬坡高度相当,但下爬坡事件最大风速变化更大。
Abstract
The fluctuation and intermittency of wind power influenced by meteorological environmental conditions are important reasons leading to wind power ramp. A wind farm in Inner Mongolia is taken as the study area. The data of wind speeds on the height of wind turbine hub and actual power data are used to identify the ramp events in the study area. The data time interval is 15 minutes and period is from 19:00 on September 11, 2019 to 23:45 on December 31, 2020. The characteristics of the ramp events are analyzed from the aspects of ramp heights, ramp speeds, times of duration, seasonal and daily variations, and so on. Further more, five risk levels of the ramp events including extremely low, low, medium, high and extremely high are classified, combining with the risk assessment of power system operation. The maximum ramp heights and wind speed changes at different risk levels are determined in order to provide effective technical support for predicting ramp events. The results show that： 1）The average ramp speed of the upward ramp events is significantly higher than that of the downward ramp events, the ramp speeds are inversely proportional to duration times; 2） the ramp heights and ramp speeds have significant seasonal variations, the average of those in spring and summer are higher than in autumn and winter; 3） the occurrence possibility of high risk upward ramp events is significantly higher than that of high risk downward ramp events, there is a possibility of extremely high risk downward ramp events, the maximum ramp height of upward ramp events is close to that of downward ramp events under different risk levelss, but the maximum wind speed variation of downward events is greater.
关键词
爬坡事件 /
风电功率 /
风速 /
特征分析 /
阈值
Key words
ramp event /
wind power /
wind speed /
character analysis /
threshold
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基金
内蒙古自治区自然科学基金（2021MS04002）; 中国气象局创新发展专项（CXFZ2024J068）; 内蒙古气象局科技创新项目（nmqxkjcx202460）; 内蒙古自治区气象局防灾减灾专项“内蒙古大规模风光电场建设运行的气候效应影响评估”
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