计及爬坡特征的风电年度出力序列建模方法

张锐; 陈皓轩; 张粒子; 黄弦超; 王运; 田宏杰

doi:10.19912/j.0254-0096.tynxb.2024-0917

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太阳能学报 ›› 2025, Vol. 46 ›› Issue (10) : 570-580. DOI: 10.19912/j.0254-0096.tynxb.2024-0917

计及爬坡特征的风电年度出力序列建模方法

张锐¹, 陈皓轩¹, 张粒子¹, 黄弦超¹, 王运², 田宏杰³

作者信息 +

MODELING METHOD FOR ANNUAL WIND POWER OUTPUT SEQUENCE TAKING INTO ACCOUNT RAMPING CHARACTERISTICS

Zhang Rui¹, Chen Haoxuan¹, Zhang Lizi¹, Huang Xianchao¹, Wang Yun², Tian Hongjie³

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文章历史 +

摘要

针对新型电力系统下风电爬坡事件频发导致系统长期灵活调节容量充裕性不足的问题,提出一种计及爬坡特征的风电年度出力序列建模方法,提高中长期时间尺度下系统灵活性评估精度,以期指导灵活性资源的规划与建设。首先,构建风电日出力爬坡特征指标,通过旋转门算法与四点法筛选提取风电爬坡功率片段以实现爬坡特征指标的量化计算,应用K-medoids方法与核密度估计构建风电日出力爬坡特征指标概率分布模型;然后,通过马尔科夫链蒙特卡洛算法（MCMC）模拟气象条件对风电日出力序列间转移特性的影响,通过蒙特卡洛抽样与出力序列优化得到兼具风电出力爬坡特征与时序特征的风电年出力序列;最后,基于中国西北某省风电出力数据进行算例仿真计算,利用生成的风电年度出力序列进行系统长期灵活性评估,验证所提方法的有效性与实用性。

Abstract

To address the issue of inadequate long-term flexible adjustment capacity caused by the frequent occurrence of wind power ramping events in the new power system, a modeling method for the annual output sequence of wind power considering the ramping characteristics is proposed. This method enhances the precision of system flexibility assessment over medium- and long-term time horizons, thereby providing guidance for the planning and development of flexibility resources. Initially, wind power ramping segments are meticulously filtered and extracted using the Spinning Door algorithm and the Four-Point method. Subsequently, the daily wind power output ramping characteristic indices are identified by analyzing the morphology and distribution properties of these ramping segments. With these indices in hand, the K-medoids clustering algorithm and kernel density estimation are employed to establish a probabilistic distribution model for the daily wind power output ramping features. This enables the generation of a daily wind power output sequence that encapsulates both ramping characteristics and time series attributes, achieved through Monte Carlo sampling and sequence optimization techniques. In the final step, the Markov Chain Monte Carlo （MCMC） method is utilized to simulate the impact of meteorological conditions on the transition characteristics between daily wind power output sequences, thereby creating annual wind power output sequences that accurately reflect both the stochastic nature and ramping characteristics of wind power. The simulation is grounded in wind power output data from a province in Northwest China. The resultant annual wind power output sequences are then applied to assess the long-term flexibility of the system, validating the efficacy and practical applicability of the proposed methodology.

导出引用

张锐, 陈皓轩, 张粒子, 黄弦超, 王运, 田宏杰. 计及爬坡特征的风电年度出力序列建模方法[J]. 太阳能学报. 2025, 46(10): 570-580 https://doi.org/10.19912/j.0254-0096.tynxb.2024-0917

Zhang Rui, Chen Haoxuan, Zhang Lizi, Huang Xianchao, Wang Yun, Tian Hongjie. MODELING METHOD FOR ANNUAL WIND POWER OUTPUT SEQUENCE TAKING INTO ACCOUNT RAMPING CHARACTERISTICS[J]. Acta Energiae Solaris Sinica. 2025, 46(10): 570-580 https://doi.org/10.19912/j.0254-0096.tynxb.2024-0917

中图分类号： TM614

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