一种高分辨率的光伏短期功率预测模型

张飞; 廖乾国; 李兴财; 胡伟伟; 薄天利; 马鑫

doi:10.19912/j.0254-0096.tynxb.2024-1190

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太阳能学报 ›› 2025, Vol. 46 ›› Issue (11) : 235-243. DOI: 10.19912/j.0254-0096.tynxb.2024-1190

一种高分辨率的光伏短期功率预测模型

张飞¹, 廖乾国¹, 李兴财^1,2, 胡伟伟¹, 薄天利¹, 马鑫¹

作者信息 +

A HIGH-RESOLUTION SHORT-TERM POWER GENERATION FORECASTING METHOD FOR PHOTOVOLTAIC

Zhang Fei¹, Liao Qianguo¹, Li Xingcai^1,2, Hu Weiwei¹, Bo Tianli¹, Ma Xin¹

Author information +

文章历史 +

摘要

提出一种新颖的混合预测模型,该模型采用麻雀搜索算法（SSA）优化变分模态分解（VMD）的参数。随后,模型利用VMD和带有自适应噪声的完整集成经验模态分解（CEEMDAN）对光伏功率数据进行二次分解。接着,应用卷积神经网络和带有注意力机制的长短期记忆网络（CNN-LSTM-Attention）对分解后的序列数据进行训练和预测。对所提模型在不同天气条件和分时间辨率下进行验证,结果表明在不同时间分辨率（2或10 min）、预测范围（1、3或5 d）和不同天气条件下,该方法的预测性能均优于其他方法,预测值的相关系数均超过0.97。

Abstract

This study introduces a novel hybrid forecasting model, which uniquely employs the sparrow search algorithm to optimize the parameters of variational model Decomposition. Subsequently, the model utilizes variational mode decomposition and complete ensemble empirical mode decomposition with adaptive noise for dual rounds of time series decomposition related to solar power, followed by the application of convolutional neural networks and long short-term memory with attention mechanisms to train and forecast the decomposed series data. The proposed model undergoes validation using real-world data across various weather conditions and resolutions. The results consistently demonstrate the superior predictive performance of the new method across different time resolutions （2 or 10 minutes）, forecast ranges （1, 3, or 5 days）, and diverse weather conditions, with a remarkable correlation coefficient of the predicted values exceeding 0.97.

导出引用

张飞, 廖乾国, 李兴财, 胡伟伟, 薄天利, 马鑫. 一种高分辨率的光伏短期功率预测模型[J]. 太阳能学报. 2025, 46(11): 235-243 https://doi.org/10.19912/j.0254-0096.tynxb.2024-1190

Zhang Fei, Liao Qianguo, Li Xingcai, Hu Weiwei, Bo Tianli, Ma Xin. A HIGH-RESOLUTION SHORT-TERM POWER GENERATION FORECASTING METHOD FOR PHOTOVOLTAIC[J]. Acta Energiae Solaris Sinica. 2025, 46(11): 235-243 https://doi.org/10.19912/j.0254-0096.tynxb.2024-1190

中图分类号： TM615

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