考虑风力波动相关性的风电场超短期出力预测

李传栋; 张明慧; 张逸; 弋子渊; 牛华清

doi:10.19912/j.0254-0096.tynxb.2024-1299

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太阳能学报 ›› 2025, Vol. 46 ›› Issue (11) : 754-763. DOI: 10.19912/j.0254-0096.tynxb.2024-1299

考虑风力波动相关性的风电场超短期出力预测

李传栋¹, 张明慧², 张逸³, 弋子渊², 牛华清³

作者信息 +

ULTRA-SHORT-TERM WIND FARM OUTPUT PREDICTION CONSIDERING THE CORRELATION OF WIND POWER FLUCTUATIONS

Li Chuandong¹, Zhang Minghui², Zhang Yi³, Yi Ziyuan², Niu Huaqing³

Author information +

文章历史 +

摘要

为提升风速波动下风电场超短期出力预测的准确性,提出一种考虑邻近风电场间风力波动时空关联性的超短期出力预测新方法。首先基于风速、风向和风电场间相对位置,计算出力波动间的时间差,并以此为依据确定有先验信息预测时段;其次运用变分贝叶斯模型,提取邻近风电场出力波动对待测出力影响的隐式关系,实现有先验信息时段出力的预测;最后,补全无先验信息时段预测得到完整的超短期预测周期的出力预测。以福建省3座风电场的实测数据进行验证,结果表明所提方法能有效利用邻近风电场的出力波动特征,提高目标风电场超短期出力预测的准确率。

Abstract

In order to improve the accuracy of ultra-short-term output prediction of wind farms under wind speed fluctuations, this paper proposes a new method for ultra-short-term output prediction considering the spatial and temporal correlation of wind fluctuations between adjacent wind farms. Firstly, based on the relative position of wind speed, wind direction and the relative position of wind farms, the time difference between output fluctuations is calculated, and the prediction time period with prior information is determined based on this basis. Secondly, the variational Bayesian model is used to extract the implicit relationship between the output fluctuation of the adjacent wind farm and the influence of the measured output, and the prediction of the output of the prior information period is realized. Finally, the output prediction of the complete ultra-short-term prediction cycle is obtained by completing the period prediction without prior information. The measured data of three wind farms in Fujian Province are used for verification. The results show that the proposed method can effectively utilize the output fluctuation characteristics of adjacent wind farms and improve the accuracy of ultra-short-term output prediction of target wind farms.

导出引用

李传栋, 张明慧, 张逸, 弋子渊, 牛华清. 考虑风力波动相关性的风电场超短期出力预测[J]. 太阳能学报. 2025, 46(11): 754-763 https://doi.org/10.19912/j.0254-0096.tynxb.2024-1299

Li Chuandong, Zhang Minghui, Zhang Yi, Yi Ziyuan, Niu Huaqing. ULTRA-SHORT-TERM WIND FARM OUTPUT PREDICTION CONSIDERING THE CORRELATION OF WIND POWER FLUCTUATIONS[J]. Acta Energiae Solaris Sinica. 2025, 46(11): 754-763 https://doi.org/10.19912/j.0254-0096.tynxb.2024-1299

中图分类号： TM614

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