风电采暖高寒地区严寒并发匮风事件关联分析

李彬; 左剑; 苏盛; 石东源; 陈金富

doi:10.19912/j.0254-0096.tynxb.2024-1325

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太阳能学报 ›› 2025, Vol. 46 ›› Issue (7) : 450-457. DOI: 10.19912/j.0254-0096.tynxb.2024-1325

第二十七届中国科协年会学术论文

风电采暖高寒地区严寒并发匮风事件关联分析

李彬¹, 左剑², 苏盛¹, 石东源³, 陈金富³

作者信息 +

ASSOCIATION ANALYSIS OF CONCURRENT EXTREME COLD AND LOW‐WIND EVENTS IN HIGH‐COLD REGIONS WITH WIND‐POWERED HEATING

Li Bin¹, Zuo Jian², Su Sheng¹, Shi Dongyuan³, Chen Jinfu³

Author information +

文章历史 +

摘要

为明确中国东北地区在严寒天气下并发匮风的概率和严重程度,采用当地1979—2022年间逐小时历史气象数据反演产生风电出力数据;按风电出力容量系数低于设定阈值识了匮风事件,重现2021年9月下旬造成大面积限电的匮风发电事件,并识别出2009年7月下旬持续7 d的长时持续匮风事件;分析匮风发电事件的年度次数、季节分布和持续时长;对采暖季匮风发电事件的分析表明,采暖季在低于-15 ℃气温条件下的匮风达300次,且采暖季匮风与寒潮有强关联性。

Abstract

In order to unveil the probability and severity of low wind power events during severe cold weather in northeastern China, hourly historical meteorological data from 1979 to 2022 were used to reconstruct wind power output data. The occurrence of low wind power events was identified on the basis of wind power output capacity factors falling below a designated threshold, thereby reproducing the low wind power event that resulted in widespread power restrictions in late September 2021. A long-term low wind power event lasting seven days in late July 2009 was also identified. The annual frequency, seasonal distribution, and duration of low wind power events were analyzed. A study of low wind power events during the heating season revealed 300 instances occurig at temperature below -15 ℃. Furthermore, the analysis demonstrated a strong correlation between low wind power during the heating season and cold waves occurrences.

导出引用

李彬, 左剑, 苏盛, 石东源, 陈金富. 风电采暖高寒地区严寒并发匮风事件关联分析[J]. 太阳能学报. 2025, 46(7): 450-457 https://doi.org/10.19912/j.0254-0096.tynxb.2024-1325

Li Bin, Zuo Jian, Su Sheng, Shi Dongyuan, Chen Jinfu. ASSOCIATION ANALYSIS OF CONCURRENT EXTREME COLD AND LOW‐WIND EVENTS IN HIGH‐COLD REGIONS WITH WIND‐POWERED HEATING[J]. Acta Energiae Solaris Sinica. 2025, 46(7): 450-457 https://doi.org/10.19912/j.0254-0096.tynxb.2024-1325

中图分类号： TM614

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