基于合作博弈和云模型的新型电力系统状态评价

萨妮耶&#x000b7;麦合木提; 樊小朝; 史瑞静; 武家辉; 王维庆; 王海云

doi:10.19912/j.0254-0096.tynxb.2024-1928

PDF(14485 KB)

太阳能学报 ›› 2026, Vol. 47 ›› Issue (3) : 111-123. DOI: 10.19912/j.0254-0096.tynxb.2024-1928

基于合作博弈和云模型的新型电力系统状态评价

萨妮耶·麦合木提¹, 樊小朝¹, 史瑞静¹, 武家辉², 王维庆², 王海云²

作者信息 +

RESEARCH ON STATE EVALUATION OF NEW POWER SYSTEMS BASED ON COOPERATIVE GAME THEORY AND CLOUD MODEL

Saniye·Maihemuti¹, Fan Xiaochao¹, Shi Ruijing¹, Wu Jiahui², Wang Weiqing², Wang Haiyun²

Author information +

文章历史 +

摘要

新型电力系统已逐步发展成为具有多层次结构、多时间标度的复杂大系统,采用单一指标难以准确地衡量其安全稳定水平。因此,从电网的实际需求出发,通过构建多参量指标体系及评价模型,提出一种基于主客观评价的含新能源电力系统安全稳定运行状态评价方法。采用Apriori算法对含新能源电力系统安全稳定指标数据进行关联分析与数据挖掘,获取与系统运行状态密切相关的特征指标,建立系统运行状态的多参量指标体系。在此基础上将DEMATEL-AEW主客观法相结合,分别计算指标体系的主、客观权重值,然后提出合作博弈的组合赋权法求解评价指标的组合权重,最后通过云模型理论对含新能源电力系统安全稳定运行状态进行评价。结果表明,所提指标体系和评价方法能准确评估含新能源电力系统安全稳定运行状态。

Abstract

Addressing the fact that new power systems have gradually evolved into complex large systems with multi-level structures and multi-time scales, it is difficult to accurately measure their safety and stability levels using a single indicator. Therefore, starting from the actual needs of the power grid, a safety and stability operation state evaluation method for new energy power systems is proposed by constructing a multi-parameter indicator system and evaluation model based on subjective and objective evaluation. The Apriori algorithm is used for association analysis and data mining of safety and stability indicator data of renewable energy power systems to obtain feature indicators closely related to the system’s operational state, and to establish a multi-parameter indicator system for system operation state. On this basis, the DEMATEL-AEW method combining subjective and objective approaches is used to calculate the subjective and objective weight values of the indicator system, respectively. Then, a cooperative game-based combined weighting method is proposed to solve for the combined weights of the evaluation indicators. Finally, the safety and stability operation state of the renewable energy power system is evaluated using cloud model theory. The results show that the proposed indicator system and evaluation method can accurately assess the safety and stability operation state of new energy power systems.

导出引用

萨妮耶·麦合木提, 樊小朝, 史瑞静, 武家辉, 王维庆, 王海云. 基于合作博弈和云模型的新型电力系统状态评价[J]. 太阳能学报. 2026, 47(3): 111-123 https://doi.org/10.19912/j.0254-0096.tynxb.2024-1928

Saniye·Maihemuti, Fan Xiaochao, Shi Ruijing, Wu Jiahui, Wang Weiqing, Wang Haiyun. RESEARCH ON STATE EVALUATION OF NEW POWER SYSTEMS BASED ON COOPERATIVE GAME THEORY AND CLOUD MODEL[J]. Acta Energiae Solaris Sinica. 2026, 47(3): 111-123 https://doi.org/10.19912/j.0254-0096.tynxb.2024-1928

中图分类号： TK01+9

参考文献

[1] CHEN Z B, REN C, XU Y, et al.Data-driven power system dynamic security assessment under adversarial attacks: risk warning based interpretation analysis and mitigation[J]. IET energy systems integration, 2024, 6(1): 62-72.
[2] ZHANG Y C, XU Y, DONG Z Y, et al.A hierarchical self-adaptive data-analytics method for real-time power system short-term voltage stability assessment[J]. IEEE transactions on industrial informatics, 2019, 15(1): 74-84.
[3] WANG C, LI X H, TIAN T, et al.Coordinated control of passive transition from grid-connected to islanded operation for three/single-phase hybrid multimicrogrids considering speed and smoothness[J]. IEEE transactions on industrial electronics, 2020, 67(3): 1921-1931.
[4] NI Z, PAUL S.A multistage game in smart grid security: a reinforcement learning solution[J]. IEEE transactions on neural networks and learning systems, 2019, 30(9): 2684-2695.
[5] LIU L, WANG D, HOU K, et al.Region model and application of regional integrated energy system security analysis[J]. Applied energy, 2020, 260: 114268.
[6] R MONTEIRO M, F ALVARENGA G, R RODRIGUES Y, et al.Network partitioning in coherent areas of static voltage stability applied to security region enhancement[J]. International journal of electrical power & energy systems, 2020, 117: 105623.
[7] THAMS F, VENZKE A, ERIKSSON R, et al.Efficient database generation for data-driven security assessment of power systems[J]. IEEE transactions on power systems, 2020, 35(1): 30-41.
[8] LIU S K, LIU L H, FAN Y P, et al.An integrated scheme for online dynamic security assessment based on partial mutual information and iterated random forest[J]. IEEE transactions on smart grid, 2020, 11(4): 3606-3619.
[9] 孙淼军, 陈玉静, 杨风艳, 等. 基于熵权-TOPSIS法的漂浮式海上风电基础结构方案多准则评价研究[J]. 太阳能学报, 2025, 46(4): 406-414.
SUN M J, CHEN Y J, YANG F Y, et al.Multi-criteria evaluation of floating offshore wind turbine substructure schemes based on entropy-TOPSIS method[J]. Acta energiae solaris sinica, 2025, 46(4): 406-414.
[10] 韩中合, 赵昕, 杨世明, 等. 区域综合能源系统多目标优化及改进主客观评价[J]. 太阳能学报, 2024, 45(12): 606-616.
HAN Z H, ZHAO X, YANG S M, et al.Multi-objective optimization and improved subjective-objective evaluation for regional integrated energy systems[J]. Acta energiae solaris sinica, 2024, 45(12): 606-616.
[11] 杨雨莹, 任晓芬, 张景, 等. 基于改进AHP-TOPSIS的村镇太阳能+生物质能联合供暖综合评价[J]. 太阳能学报, 2024, 45(2): 342-350.
YANG Y Y, REN X F, ZHANG J, et al.Comprehensive evaluation of combined solar+biomass heating in villages and towns based on improved AHP-TOPSIS[J]. Acta energiae solaris sinica, 2024, 45(2): 342-350.
[12] ZHOU F L, WANG X, GOH M, et al.Supplier portfolio of key outsourcing parts selection using a two-stage decision making framework for Chinese domestic auto-maker[J]. Computers & industrial engineering, 2019, 128: 559-575.
[13] ALTINTAS E, UTLU Z.Planning energy usage in electricity production sector considering environmental impacts with fuzzy TOPSIS method & game theory[J]. Cleaner engineering and technology, 2021, 5: 100283.
[14] COLLINS B C, KUMRAL M.Examining impact and benefit agreements in mineral extraction using game theory and multiple-criteria decision making[J]. The extractive industries and society, 2022, 10: 101094.
[15] ZHANG G R, WANG E Y, ZHANG C L, et al.A comprehensive risk assessment method for coal and gas outburst in underground coal mines based on variable weight theory and uncertainty analysis[J]. Process safety and environmental protection, 2022, 167: 97-111.
[16] HE Y X, LYU Y, CHE Y R.Operational optimization of combined cooling, heat and power system based on information gap decision theory method considering probability distribution[J]. Sustainable energy technologies and assessments, 2022, 51: 101977.
[17] KUMAR A W, UD DIN MUFTI M, ZARGAR M Y. Fuzzy based virtual inertia emulation in a multi-area wind penetrated power system using adaptive predictive control based flywheel storage[J]. Sustainable energy technologies and assessments, 2022, 53: 102515.
[18] SONG D W, YANG M, BAI H K, et al.A comprehensive evaluation model of power market operation efficiency based on extension cloud theory[J]. Energy procedia, 2019, 156: 302-309.
[19] DONG J, LIU D R, LIU Y, et al.Trading performance evaluation for traditional power generation group based on an integrated matter-element extension cloud model[J]. Energy reports, 2021, 7: 3074-3089.
[20] ZHANG Y Y, ZHAO H R, LI B K, et al.Research on credit rating and risk measurement of electricity retailers based on Bayesian Best Worst Method-Cloud Model and improved Credit Metrics model in China’s power market[J]. Energy, 2022, 252: 124088.
[21] YIN Y, LIU J C.Risk assessment of photovoltaic: energy storage utilization project based on improved Cloud-TODIM in China[J]. Energy, 2022, 253: 124177.
[22] LIU X L, LIU J, REN K Z, et al.An integrated fuzzy multi-energy transaction evaluation approach for energy Internet markets considering judgement credibility and variable rough precision[J]. Energy, 2022, 261: 125327.
[23] ZHAO H R, LI B K, LU H, et al.Economy-environment-energy performance evaluation of CCHP microgrid system: a hybrid multi-criteria decision-making method[J]. Energy, 2022, 240: 122830.
[24] HUAI W L, JAMES J.H. L, TZENG G-H. Comments on “Sustainable recycling partner selection using fuzzy DEMATEL-AEW-FVIKOR: a case study in small-and-medium enterprises”[J]. Journal of cleaner production, 2019, 228: 1011-1012.
[25] ZHOU F L, WANG X, LIM M K, et al.Sustainable recycling partner selection using fuzzy DEMATEL-AEW-FVIKOR: a case study in small-and-medium enterprises (SMEs)[J]. Journal of cleaner production, 2018, 196: 489-504.
[26] 南东亮, 王维庆, 张陵, 等. 基于关联规则挖掘与组合赋权-云模型的电网二次设备运行状态风险评估[J]. 电力系统保护与控制, 2021, 49(10): 67-76.
NAN D L, WANG W Q, ZHANG L, et al.Risk assessment of the operation state of power grid secondary equipment based on association rule mining and combination weighting-cloud model[J]. Power system protection and control, 2021, 49(10): 67-76.
[27] CHEN X, XUE S, YANG T, et al.Research on influencing factors of line loss rate of regional distribution network based on Apriori-interpretative structural model[J]. Energy reports, 2022, 8: 53-64.
[28] LI J S, XU K L.A combined fuzzy DEMATEL and cloud model approach for risk assessment in process industries to improve system reliability[J]. Quality and reliability engineering international, 2021, 37(5): 2110-2133.
[29] 杨金海, 武家辉, 萨妮耶·麦合木提, 等. 含新能源的电力系统安全性评估[J]. 现代电力, 2023, 40(5): 651-659.
YANG J H, WU J H, SANIYE·MAIHEMUTI, et al. Research on security evaluation of power system with new energy[J]. Modern electric power, 2023, 40(5): 651-659.
[30] MA S, CHEN M, MEI S Y.Research on the optimal model for the evaluation of new power system investment projects based on the cloud model-DS evidence theory-TOPSIS method[J]. Energy science & engineering, 2024, 12(1): 22-38.