考虑匮风与水文干旱的跨大区输电送、受端电源出力特性及耦合分析

马瑞杰; 周宇杰; 苏盛; 刘韬文; 杨洪明; 王进

doi:10.19912/j.0254-0096.tynxb.2024-2049

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太阳能学报 ›› 2026, Vol. 47 ›› Issue (3) : 212-221. DOI: 10.19912/j.0254-0096.tynxb.2024-2049

考虑匮风与水文干旱的跨大区输电送、受端电源出力特性及耦合分析

马瑞杰¹, 周宇杰², 苏盛¹, 刘韬文³, 杨洪明¹, 王进¹

作者信息 +

COUPLING ANALYSIS OF POWER OUTPUT CHARACTERISTICS AT SENDING AND RECEIVING ENDS OF CROSS-REGIONAL TRANSMISSION CONSIDERING WIND DROUGHT AND HYDROLOGICAL DROUGHT

Ma Ruijie¹, Zhou Yujie², Su Sheng¹, Liu Taowen³, Yang Hongming¹, Wang Jin¹

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文章历史 +

摘要

由于缺乏高比例清洁能源跨大区输电实际系统的长期运行经验,提出基于气象数据反演的匮风事件评估方法,结合ERA5再分析气象数据与风力机出力模型,反演历史小时尺度区域风电出力序列,分析年际和季节性匮风强度与持续时间。结合甘肃与湖南两省气象与水文数据,计算得到多年逐月匮风强度和水文干旱指标,划分水电与风电耦合性等级,据此分析送、受端电源出力季节特性和年际变化特性,识别指出送、受端风电、水电出力不足的变化规律。

Abstract

The transmission of clean energy sources, such as wind power from the Northwest, across regions to southern provinces with primary energy shortages, is a crucial support for building a diversified clean energy supply system. The output of high-proportion hydropower in the southern receiving grids and wind power in the northern sending grids can be significantly affected by hydrological droughts and widespread low-output wind power events, respectively. This poses severe challenges to ensuring a stable power supply. Due to the lack of long-term operational experience with high-proportion clean energy transmission systems across large regions, a wind power shortage event assessment method based on meteorological data inversion is proposed. By combining ERA5 reanalysis meteorological data with wind turbine power output models, and constructing hourly time series of regional wind power capacity factors, the interannual and seasonal wind power shortage intensity and duration are analyzed. Using meteorological and hydrological data from Gansu and Hunan provinces, the monthly wind power shortage intensity and hydrological drought indices over several years are calculated. The coupling levels between hydropower and wind power are classified accordingly, and the seasonal characteristics and interannual variations of the output from both sending and receiving end power sources are analyzed, and the patterns of insufficient output from wind and hydropower at both ends are identified.

导出引用

马瑞杰, 周宇杰, 苏盛, 刘韬文, 杨洪明, 王进. 考虑匮风与水文干旱的跨大区输电送、受端电源出力特性及耦合分析[J]. 太阳能学报. 2026, 47(3): 212-221 https://doi.org/10.19912/j.0254-0096.tynxb.2024-2049

Ma Ruijie, Zhou Yujie, Su Sheng, Liu Taowen, Yang Hongming, Wang Jin. COUPLING ANALYSIS OF POWER OUTPUT CHARACTERISTICS AT SENDING AND RECEIVING ENDS OF CROSS-REGIONAL TRANSMISSION CONSIDERING WIND DROUGHT AND HYDROLOGICAL DROUGHT[J]. Acta Energiae Solaris Sinica. 2026, 47(3): 212-221 https://doi.org/10.19912/j.0254-0096.tynxb.2024-2049

中图分类号： TM614 TM612 TM722

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