该文基于高精度气候数据集GDDP,评估了京津冀地区在不同社会经济发展路径（SSP）情景下的光伏发电潜力及未来光伏干旱事件的变化特征。结果表明,与历史时期相比,未来气候变化将导致该地区光伏容量因子呈轻微下降趋势,其中SSP585情景下的下降幅度显著高于SSP245,预计到本世纪中后期,光伏容量因子下降约1.5%。此外,光伏干旱事件的发生频率（每年增加1.5~2.0次）、持续时间（从10.83 d增至28.6~43.3 d）和强度（增加3~5倍）均呈上升趋势。在SSP245情景下,京津冀北部地区的光伏干旱发生次数增加更加明显,而在SSP585情景下,南部区域的光伏干旱强度增幅更大。与历史时期相比,气候变化将显著缩短光伏干旱事件的重现期（缩短12~25 a）,加剧光伏发电的不稳定性。
Abstract
This study, based on the high-resolution climate dataset GDDP, evaluates the PV power potential and future PV drought characteristics in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region under different shared socioeconomic pathway （SSP） scenarios. The results indicate that, compared to the historical period, future climate change will lead to a slight decline in PV capacity factor of the region, with a more pronounced decrease under the SSP585 scenario than under SSP245. By the mid-to-late 21st century, the PV capacity factor is projected to decline by approximately 1.5%. Furthermore, the frequency （increasing by 1.5-2.0 events per year）, duration （extending from 10.83 days to 28.6-43.3 days）, and intensity （increasing by 3-5 times）of PV drought events are expected to increase. Under the SSP245 scenario, northern parts of the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region will experience a more significant rise in PV drought occurrences, whereas under SSP585, the intensity of PV droughts will increase more substantially in the southern areas. Compared to the historical period, climate change will significantly shorten the return period of PV drought events （by approximately 12-25 years）, further exacerbating the instability of PV power generation.
关键词
气候变化 /
干旱 /
光伏发电 /
容量因子 /
京津冀 /
SSP情景
Key words
climate change /
drought /
PV power /
capacity factor /
Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei /
SSP scenarios
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基金
基于高精度风光出力预测的电力现货市场决策模型研究项目技术服务（2023-JF-0074）
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