计及尾流效应的海上风电场超短期功率预测

魏书荣; 彭冉晟; 符杨; 杨心刚; 方陈

doi:10.19912/j.0254-0096.tynxb.2024-2142

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太阳能学报 ›› 2026, Vol. 47 ›› Issue (4) : 268-277. DOI: 10.19912/j.0254-0096.tynxb.2024-2142

计及尾流效应的海上风电场超短期功率预测

魏书荣¹, 彭冉晟¹, 符杨¹, 杨心刚², 方陈²

作者信息 +

ULTRA-SHORT-TERM POWER PREDICTION OF OFFSHORE WIND POWER CONSIDERING WAKE EFFECT

Wei Shurong¹, Peng Ransheng¹, Fu Yang¹, Yang Xin’gang², Fang Chen²

Author information +

文章历史 +

摘要

由于海上风电具有低海平面粗糙度、风力机布局密集等特点,其发电功率受尾流影响显著,特提出一种计及尾流效应的海上风电场超短期功率预测方法。首先,采用天气研究与预报模式（WRF）耦合风电场参数化模型（WFP）量化评估相邻海上风电场间的尾流效应,将所得尾流量化指标作为预测模型的输入数据;然后,在考虑尾流影响的基础上,建立基于可学习邻接矩阵的时空图卷积网络、空间自适应特征调制模块（SAFM）和部分卷积网络（PConv）的预测模型;最后,将所提预测方法应用于江苏某相邻海上风电场群,量化分析风电场间尾流效应。算例表明,所提方法可显著提升海上风电场功率预测精度。

Abstract

Accurate prediction of ultra-short-term power of offshore wind farm is an important means to ensure the safe operation of offshore wind power system. Because offshore wind power has the characteristics of low sea level roughness and dense layout of wind turbines, its power generation is significantly affected by wake. An ultra-short-term power prediction method for offshore wind farms considering wake effect is proposed. Firstly, the weather research and forecasting model （WRF） coupled with the wind farm parameterization （WFP） is used to quantitatively evaluate the wake effect between adjacent offshore wind farms, and the obtained wake quantification index is used as the input data of the prediction model. Then, on the basis of considering wake effect, the prediction models of spatio-temporal graph convolutional network, spatially adaptive feature modulation module （SAFM） and partial convolutional （PConv） based on learnable adjacency matrix are established. Finally, the proposed prediction method is applied to an adjacent offshore wind farm group in Jiangsu Province to quantitatively analyze the wake effect between wind farms. The example shows that the proposed method can significantly improve the power prediction accuracy of offshore wind farms and offer technical assistance for the high-quality advancement of offshore wind power.

导出引用

魏书荣, 彭冉晟, 符杨, 杨心刚, 方陈. 计及尾流效应的海上风电场超短期功率预测[J]. 太阳能学报. 2026, 47(4): 268-277 https://doi.org/10.19912/j.0254-0096.tynxb.2024-2142

Wei Shurong, Peng Ransheng, Fu Yang, Yang Xin’gang, Fang Chen. ULTRA-SHORT-TERM POWER PREDICTION OF OFFSHORE WIND POWER CONSIDERING WAKE EFFECT[J]. Acta Energiae Solaris Sinica. 2026, 47(4): 268-277 https://doi.org/10.19912/j.0254-0096.tynxb.2024-2142

中图分类号： TM614

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