融合物理约束与多尺度特征的Mamba-Transformer超短期风电功率预测

余勇祥; 匡相宇; 韩建; 高波; 曾晗; 李泽文

doi:10.19912/j.0254-0096.tynxb.2025-0079

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太阳能学报 ›› 2026, Vol. 47 ›› Issue (6) : 296-305. DOI: 10.19912/j.0254-0096.tynxb.2025-0079

融合物理约束与多尺度特征的Mamba-Transformer超短期风电功率预测

余勇祥, 匡相宇, 韩建, 高波, 曾晗, 李泽文

作者信息 +

MAMBA-TRANSFORMER ULTRA-SHORT-TERM WIND POWER PREDICTION BY INTEGRATING PHYSICAL CONSTRAINTS AND MULTISCALE FEATURES

Yu Yongxiang, Kuang Xiangyu, Han Jian, Gao Bo, Zeng Han, Li Zewen

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文章历史 +

摘要

提出一种融合物理约束与多尺度特征的Mamba-Transformer模型,用于超短期风电功率预测。该模型通过自适应噪声完备经验模态分解风电功率数据,提取不同频率下的非线性与非平稳特征,并将分解后的模态函数与风电场气象数据输入Mamba模型,挖掘局部时变特性。再利用Transformer模型的自注意力机制捕捉多尺度特征间的长距离依赖关系。最后,结合一维Jensen尾流模型构建物理约束,通过自适应加权机制整合物理模型与数据驱动模型预测结果。实验结果表明,该文提出的模型与Transformer相比,均方根误差（RMSE）和平均绝对误差（MAE）分别降低41.29%和50.26%。该模型在提高风电功率预测精度的同时,展现出较高的泛化能力。

Abstract

We propose a Mamba-Transformer model integrating physical constraints and multi-scale features for ultra-short-term wind power forecasting. The proposed model employs complete ensemble empirical mode decomposition with adaptive noise to capture nonlinear and nonstationary patterns in wind power data across multiple frequency components. The decomposed modal functions are then fed into the Mamba model alongside meteorological data from the wind farm to uncover local time-varying properties. The self-attention mechanism of the Transformer model is then employed to capture long-range dependencies among multi-scale features. Finally, a one-dimensional Jensen wake model is integrated to establish physical constraints, integrating the prediction results of physical models and data-driven models through an adaptive weighting mechanism. Experimental results demonstrate that compared to the Transformer model, the proposed model reduces root mean square error （RMSE） and mean absolute error （MAE） by 41.29% and 50.26%, respectively. This model enhances wind power forecasting accuracy while exhibiting strong generalization capabilities.

导出引用

余勇祥, 匡相宇, 韩建, 高波, 曾晗, 李泽文. 融合物理约束与多尺度特征的Mamba-Transformer超短期风电功率预测[J]. 太阳能学报. 2026, 47(6): 296-305 https://doi.org/10.19912/j.0254-0096.tynxb.2025-0079

Yu Yongxiang, Kuang Xiangyu, Han Jian, Gao Bo, Zeng Han, Li Zewen. MAMBA-TRANSFORMER ULTRA-SHORT-TERM WIND POWER PREDICTION BY INTEGRATING PHYSICAL CONSTRAINTS AND MULTISCALE FEATURES[J]. Acta Energiae Solaris Sinica. 2026, 47(6): 296-305 https://doi.org/10.19912/j.0254-0096.tynxb.2025-0079

中图分类号： TM614

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