极端气象条件下综合能源系统可靠性评估方法研究与展望

曾林俊; 马宏毅; 肖赞; 卿巍; 徐佳妮; 刘铮

doi:10.19912/j.0254-0096.tynxb.2025-0151

PDF(1573 KB)

太阳能学报 ›› 2026, Vol. 47 ›› Issue (6) : 78-92. DOI: 10.19912/j.0254-0096.tynxb.2025-0151

极端气象条件下综合能源系统可靠性评估方法研究与展望

曾林俊¹, 马宏毅², 肖赞², 卿巍¹, 徐佳妮¹, 刘铮¹

作者信息 +

RESEARCH AND PROSPECT OF RELIABILITY ASSESSMENT METHODS OF INTEGRATED ENERGY SYSTEMS UNDER EXTREME METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS

Zeng Linjun¹, Ma Hongyi², Xiao Zan², Qing Wei¹, Xu Jiani¹, Liu Zheng¹

Author information +

文章历史 +

摘要

全球气候变化背景下,极端高温、严寒低温冰冻、强风暴雨等极端气象事件频发,严重威胁综合能源系统（IES）的运行可靠性。基于上述事件,首先,聚焦极端气象下综合能源系统可靠性评估方法,深入剖析极端高温、严寒低温冰冻、强风暴雨3种极端气象对能源生产设备,涵盖发电、供热、储能设备及能源传输网络的多方面影响。其次,全面综述针对这些极端气象的综合能源系统可靠性评估方法,探讨现有方法在气象数据处理、系统耦合建模、多方法融合、韧性量化及多因素考量等方面的不足。最后,对极端气象条件下综合能源系统运行可靠性评估提出未来可能的研究方向,旨在为提升极端气象下IES可靠性评估的准确性与有效性提供一定的理论与实践参考,保障能源供应安全与稳定。

Abstract

Under the background of global climate change, extreme weather events such as extreme high temperature, cold and freezing temperature, and strong wind and heavy rain occur frequently, which seriously threaten the operational reliability of integrated energy system （IES）. Based on this, we firstly focus on the reliability assessment methods of integrated energy system under extreme weather, and analyze the impacts of three types of extreme weather, namely, extreme high temperature, severe cold and freezing temperature, and strong wind and rainstorm, on the energy production equipment （including power generation, heat supply, and energy storage equipment） and the energy transmission network in various aspects. Secondly, we comprehensively review the integrated energy system reliability assessment methods under these extreme weather conditions, and explore the shortcomings of the existing methods in terms of meteorological data processing, system coupling modeling, multi-method fusion, toughness quantification, and multi-factor considerations. Finally, possible future research directions are proposed for the operational reliability assessment of integrated energy systems under extreme meteorological conditions, aiming to provide certain theoretical and practical references for improving the accuracy and effectiveness of IES reliability assessment under extreme meteorological conditions, so as to guarantee the safety and stability of energy supply.

导出引用

曾林俊, 马宏毅, 肖赞, 卿巍, 徐佳妮, 刘铮. 极端气象条件下综合能源系统可靠性评估方法研究与展望[J]. 太阳能学报. 2026, 47(6): 78-92 https://doi.org/10.19912/j.0254-0096.tynxb.2025-0151

Zeng Linjun, Ma Hongyi, Xiao Zan, Qing Wei, Xu Jiani, Liu Zheng. RESEARCH AND PROSPECT OF RELIABILITY ASSESSMENT METHODS OF INTEGRATED ENERGY SYSTEMS UNDER EXTREME METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS[J]. Acta Energiae Solaris Sinica. 2026, 47(6): 78-92 https://doi.org/10.19912/j.0254-0096.tynxb.2025-0151

中图分类号： TM732

参考文献

[1] 赵希正. 强化电网安全保障可靠供电: 美加“8·14”停电事件给我们的启示[J]. 电网技术, 2003, 27(10): 1-7.
ZHAO X Z.Strengthen power system security to ensure reliable power delivery[J]. Power system technology, 2003, 27(10): 1-7.
[2] 梁志峰, 葛睿, 董昱, 等. 印度“7.30”、“7.31”大停电事故分析及对我国电网调度运行工作的启示[J]. 电网技术, 2013, 37(7): 1841-1848.
LIANG Z F, GE R, DONG Y, et al.Analysis of large-scale blackout occurred on July 30 and July 31, 2012 in India and its lessons to China’s power grid dispatch and operation[J]. Power system technology, 2013, 37(7): 1841-1848.
[3] 孙华东, 许涛, 郭强, 等. 英国“8·9”大停电事故分析及对中国电网的启示[J]. 中国电机工程学报, 2019, 39(21): 6183-6191.
SUN H D, XU T, GUO Q, et al.Analysis on blackout in Great Britain power grid on August 9th, 2019 and its enlightenment to power grid in China[J]. Proceedings of the CSEE, 2019, 39(21): 6183-6191.
[4] PANTELI M, MANCARELLA P.Influence of extreme weather and climate change on the resilience of power systems: Impacts and possible mitigation strategies[J]. Electric power systems research, 2015, 127: 259-270.
[5] PRAJAPATI V K, MAHAJAN V. Reliability assessment and congestion management of power system with energy storage system and uncertain renewable resources[J]. Energy, 2021, 215(PB): 119134.1-119134.14.
[6] LUND H, MÜNSTER E. Integrated energy systems and local energy markets[J]. Energy policy, 2006, 34(10): 1152-1160.
[7] HE J, YUAN Z J, YANG X L, et al.Reliability modeling and evaluation of urban multi-energy systems: a review of the state of the art and future challenges[J]. IEEE access, 2020, 8: 98887-98909.
[8] 时帅, 吴伟聪, 李媛媛, 等. 计及极端天气和海上风电制氢的综合能源系统优化运行[J]. 电网技术, 2025, 49(6): 2293-2301, I0026-I0029.
SHI S, WU W C, LI Y Y, et al. Optimal operation of comprehensive energy system considering extreme weather and offshore wind power hydrogen production[J]. Power system technology, 2025, 49(6): 2293-2301, I0026-I0029.
[9] 唐坤霆, 周永智, 李宝聚, 等. 考虑热惯性的极端冰雪灾害下综合能源系统韧性提升[J]. 电力系统自动化, 2024, 48(21): 129-137.
TANG K T, ZHOU Y Z, LI B J, et al.Resilience enhancement of integrated energy systems under extreme ice and snow disasters considering thermal inertia[J]. Automation of electric power systems, 2024, 48(21): 129-137.
[10] TANG K T, ZHOU Y Z, LI B J.Resilience enhancement of integrated energy systems under extreme ice and snow disasters[J]. Automation of electric power system, 2024, 48(21):129-137.
[11] PAUL S, POUDYAL A, POUDEL S, et al.Resilience assessment and planning in power distribution systems: Past and future considerations[J]. Renewable and sustainable energy reviews, 2024, 189: 113991.
[12] 任洪波, 张宇晨, 吴琼, 等. 面向韧性提升的综合能源系统规划与运行调度研究综述[J]. 电力系统自动化, 2025, 49(13): 16-31.
RENG H B, ZHANG Y C, WU Q, et al.Research review on planning and operation dispatch of integrated energy system for resilience enhancement[J]. Automation of electric power system, 2025, 49(13): 16-31.
[13] 李春燕, 唐瞻文, 汤佶元, 等. 极端灾害下基于综合需求响应的电-水-气综合能源系统负荷恢复策略[J]. 高电压技术, 2024, 50(4): 1403-1415.
LI C Y, TANG Z W, TANG J Y, et al.Load recovery strategy for integrated electricity-water-gas energy system based on integrated demand response under extreme disasters[J]. High voltage engineering, 2024, 50(4): 1403-1415.
[14] 梁光芬. 燃气轮机进气冷却换热器数值模拟与结构优化研究[D]. 重庆: 重庆大学, 2021.
LIANG G F.Numerical simulation and structure optimization of gas turbine intake cooling heat exchanger[D]. Chongqing: Chongqing University, 2021.
[15] PILAVACHI P A.Power generation with gas turbine systems and combined heat and power[J]. Applied thermal engineering, 2000, 20(15/16): 1421-1429.
[16] BASRAWI F, YAMADA T, NAKANISHI K, et al.Effect of ambient temperature on the performance of micro gas turbine with cogeneration system in cold region[J]. Applied thermal engineering, 2011, 31(6/7): 1058-1067.
[17] CARAPELLUCCI R, GIORDANO L.A comparison between exergetic and economic criteria for optimizing the heat recovery steam generators of gas-steam power plants[J]. Energy, 2013, 58: 458-472.
[18] HASAN M A, SUMATHY K.Photovoltaic thermal module concepts and their performance analysis: a review[J]. Renewable and sustainable energy reviews, 2010, 14(7): 1845-1859.
[19] SEQUEIRA C, PACHECO A, GALEGO P, et al.Analysis of the efficiency of wind turbine gearboxes using the temperature variable[J]. Renewable energy, 2019, 135: 465-472.
[20] RAHIF R, KAZEMI M, ATTIA S.Overheating analysis of optimized nearly Zero-Energy dwelling during current and future heatwaves coincided with cooling system outage[J]. Energy and buildings, 2023, 287: 112998.
[21] CHEN L.The influence of high ambient temperature on the performance of vapor compression refrigeration systems[J]. Applied thermal engineering, 2018, 130: 1071-1077.
[22] 孟凡伟. 锂离子电池的相关设计与性能研究[D]. 北京: 北京理工大学, 2015.
MENG F W.Related design and performance research of lithium-ion battery[D]. Beijing: Beijing Institute of Technology, 2015.
[23] BORETTI A, CASTELLETTO S.High-temperature molten-salt thermal energy storage and advanced-Ultra-supercritical power cycles[J]. Journal of energy storage, 2021, 42: 103143.
[24] MORGAN V T, ZHANG B, FINDLAY R D.Effect of magnetic induction in a steel-cored conductor on current distribution, resistance and power loss[J]. IEEE transactions on power delivery, 1997, 12(3): 1299-1308.
[25] ÇOMAKLı K, YÜKSEL B, ÇOMAKLı Ö. Evaluation of energy and exergy losses in district heating network[J]. Applied thermal engineering, 2004, 24(7): 1009-1017.
[26] SHAMSUDDOHA M, DJUKIC L P, ISLAM M M, et al.Mechanical and thermal properties of glass fiber-vinyl ester resin composite for pipeline repair exposed to hot-wet conditioning[J]. Journal of composite materials, 2017, 51(11): 1605-1617.
[27] SU H, ZIO E, ZHANG J J, et al.A systematic method for the analysis of energy supply reliability in complex Integrated Energy Systems considering uncertainties of renewable energies, demands and operations[J]. Journal of cleaner production, 2020, 267: 122117.
[28] XU Y Q, LITARDO J, DEL PERO C, et al.District energy models: a comparative assessment of features and criteria for tools selection[J]. Energy and buildings, 2024, 314: 114291.
[29] REN H B, JIANG Z P, WU Q, et al.Integrated optimization of a regional integrated energy system with thermal energy storage considering both resilience and reliability[J]. Energy, 2022, 261: 125333.
[30] LI D, XU P, GU J F, et al.A review of reliability research in regional integrated energy system: indicator, modeling, and assessment methods[J]. Buildings, 2024, 14(11): 3428.
[31] MOSLEHI S, REDDY T A.Sustainability of integrated energy systems: a performance-based resilience assessment methodology[J]. Applied energy, 2018, 228: 487-498.
[32] 王晓静, 关欣, 陈良, 等. 间接空冷系统多级设备防冻特性及安全监测研究[J]. 中国电机工程学报, 2025, 45(6): 2264-2273.
WANG X J, GUAN X, CHEN L, et al.Multi-level anti-freezing characteristics and monitoring of natural draft dry cooling system[J]. Proceedings of the CSEE, 2025, 45(6): 2264-2273.
[33] MA S C, CHAI J, JIAO K L, et al.Environmental influence and countermeasures for high humidity flue gas discharging from power plants[J]. Renewable and sustainable energy reviews, 2017, 73: 225-235.
[34] GAO L Y, HONG J R.Wind turbine performance in natural icing environments: a field characterization[J]. Cold regions science and technology, 2021, 181: 103193.
[35] 赵沁童. 寒冷地区多能互补热泵系统的性能实验研究[D]. 兰州: 兰州理工大学, 2013.
ZHAO Q T.Experimental study on performances of the multiple-energy-driven heat pump applied in cold region[D]. Lanzhou: Lanzhou University of Technology, 2013.
[36] JIA T, DOU P B, CHEN E J, et al.Feasibility and performance analysis of a hybrid GAX-based absorption-compression heat pump system for space heating in extremely cold climate conditions[J]. Energy, 2022, 242: 122936.
[37] ZHANG X H, LI Z, LUO L G, et al.A review on thermal management of lithium-ion batteries for electric vehicles[J]. Energy, 2022, 238: 121652.
[38] 彭向阳, 周华敏, 潘春平. 2008年广东电网输电线路冰灾受损情况及关键影响因素分析[J]. 电网技术, 2009, 33(9): 108-112.
PENG X Y, ZHOU H M, PAN C P.Damage condition of overhead transmission lines in Guangdong power grid caused by icing disaster in 2008 and analysis on key impacting factors[J]. Power system technology, 2009, 33(9): 108-112.
[39] ZHANG Z J, ZHANG H, YUE S, et al.A review of icing and anti-icing technology for transmission lines[J]. Energies, 2023, 16(2): 601.
[40] 周阳. 影响电缆绝缘性能的因素研究及其对策[D]. 大连: 大连理工大学, 2015.
ZHOU Y.Wire and cable insulation properties influence factors and countermeasures[D]. Dalian: Dalian University of Technology, 2015.
[41] LI Y, REZGUI Y, ZHU H X.District heating and cooling optimization and enhancement-Towards integration of renewables, storage and smart grid[J]. Renewable and sustainable energy reviews, 2017, 72: 281-294.
[42] YU W B, ZHANG T Q, LU Y, et al.Engineering risk analysis in cold regions: state of the art and perspectives[J]. Cold regions science and technology, 2020, 171: 102963.
[43] 宋丽斐, 刘尧, 李琦芬, 等. 燃气能源站主机设备风险及故障分析方法研究[J]. 上海电力大学学报, 2020, 36(2): 154-160.
SONG L F, LIU Y, LI Q F, et al.Research on risk and fault analysis method of main equipment in gas distributed energy stations[J]. Journal of Shanghai University of Electric Power, 2020, 36(2): 154-160.
[44] CAO M S, SHAO C Z, HU B, et al.Data-driven reliability assessment of integrated energy systems in cold weather using machine learning[J]. IEEE transactions on industrial informatics, 2023, 19(3): 2018-2028.
[45] GONÇALVES A C R, COSTOYA X, NIETO R, et al. Extreme weather events on energy systems: a comprehensive review on impacts, mitigation, and adaptation measures[J]. Sustainable energy research, 2024, 11(1): 4.
[46] 孙萌萌. 考虑韧性的电热综合能源系统冰灾后优化调度研究[D]. 吉林: 东北电力大学, 2023.
SUN M M.Study on optimal post-ice dispatch of electrothermal integrated energy system considering resilience[D]. Jilin: Northeast Dianli University, 2023.
[47] 鞠冠章, 王靖然, 崔琛, 等. 极端天气事件对新能源发电和电网运行影响研究[J]. 智慧电力, 2022, 50(11): 77-83.
JU G Z, WANG J R, CUI C, et al.Impact of extreme weather events on new energy power generation and power grid operation[J]. Smart power, 2022, 50(11): 77-83.
[48] BASKUT O, OZGENER O, OZGENER L.Effects of meteorological variables on exergetic efficiency of wind turbine power plants[J]. Renewable and sustainable energy reviews, 2010, 14(9): 3237-3241.
[49] 陈思宇, 蒋俊霞, 李帅兵. 极端气候条件下光伏发电功率预测方法综述[J]. 电气工程学报, 2025, 20(1): 281-290.
CHEN S Y, JIANG J X, LI S B.Review of photovoltaic power prediction methods under extreme climate conditions[J]. Journal of electrical engineering, 2025, 20(1): 281-290.
[50] QIAN M H, CHEN N, CHEN Y G, et al.Optimal coordinated dispatching strategy of multi-sources power system with wind, hydro and thermal power based on CVaR in typhoon environment[J]. Energies, 2021, 14(13): 3735.
[51] YUCESAN M, KAHRAMAN G.Risk evaluation and prevention in hydropower plant operations: a model based on Pythagorean fuzzy AHP[J]. Energy policy, 2019, 126: 343-351.
[52] GABRYELCZYK A, IVANOV S, BUND A, et al.Corrosion of aluminium current collector in lithium-ion batteries: a review[J]. Journal of energy storage, 2021, 43: 103226.
[53] JEEVARAJAN J A, JOSHI T, PARHIZI M, et al.Battery hazards for large energy storage systems[J]. ACS energy letters, 2022, 7(8): 2725-2733.
[54] BHAYO B A, AL-KAYIEM H H, GILANI S I U, et al. Power management optimization of hybrid solar photovoltaic-battery integrated with pumped-hydro-storage system for standalone electricity generation[J]. Energy conversion and management, 2020, 215: 112942.
[55] CONFREY J, ETEMADI A H, STUBAN S M F, et al. Energy storage systems architecture optimization for grid resilience with high penetration of distributed photovoltaic generation[J]. IEEE systems journal, 2020, 14(1): 1135-1146.
[56] 厉天威, 江巳彦, 赵建华, 等. 南方电网沿海地区输电线路风灾事故分析[J]. 高压电器, 2016, 52(6): 23-28.
LI T W, JIANG S Y, ZHAO J H, et al.Wind accident analysis of southern grid coastal region transmission line[J]. High voltage apparatus, 2016, 52(6): 23-28.
[57] 董冰冰, 宋家乐, 李特, 等. 强暴雨条件下110 kV硅橡胶绝缘子雷电冲击电弧发展过程与闪络特性[J]. 高电压技术, 2023, 49(2): 525-535.
DONG B B, SONG J L, LI T, et al.Lightning impulse arc development process and flashover characteristics of 110 kV SIR insulators under heavy rainstorms[J]. High voltage engineering, 2023, 49(2): 525-535.
[58] 徐香香. 极端天气下电网故障在线预警及风险评估技术研究[D]. 南京: 东南大学, 2020.
XU X X.Research of risk assessment and online early warning of power grid fault under extreme weather[D]. Nanjing: Southeast University, 2020.
[59] SHAN X F, WANG P, LU W Z.The reliability and availability evaluation of repairable district heating networks under changeable external conditions[J]. Applied energy, 2017, 203: 686-695.
[60] LIN X Y, TIAN Z, LU Y K, et al.An energy performance assessment method for district heating substations based on energy disaggregation[J]. Energy and buildings, 2022, 255: 111615.
[61] YU J, CHEN C, LI C J.Safety analysis and emergency response of suspended oil and gas pipelines triggered by natural disasters[J]. Sustainability, 2022, 14(24): 17045.
[62] WASIM M, DJUKIC M B.External corrosion of oil and gas pipelines: a review of failure mechanisms and predictive preventions[J]. Journal of natural gas science and engineering, 2022, 100: 104467.
[63] PANTELI M, PICKERING C, WILKINSON S, et al.Power system resilience to extreme weather: fragility modeling, probabilistic impact assessment, and adaptation measures[J]. IEEE transactions on power systems, 2017, 32(5): 3747-3757.
[64] MUSELLI M, NOTTON G, POGGI P, et al.Computer-aided analysis of the integration of renewable-energy systems in remote areas using a geographical-information system[J]. Applied energy, 1999, 63(3): 141-160.
[65] IBRAHIM M S, DONG W, YANG Q.Machine learning driven smart electric power systems: current trends and new perspectives[J]. Applied energy, 2020, 272: 115237.
[66] 赵斌, 胡名科, 敖显泽, 等. 太阳能光伏发电-辐射制冷建筑一体化复合装置的性能分析[J]. 太阳能学报, 2019, 40(5): 1267-1275.
ZHAO B, HU M K, AO X Z, et al.Performance analysis of building integrated composite apparatus for both solar photovoltaic and radiative cooling[J]. Acta energiae solaris sinica, 2019, 40(5): 1267-1275.
[67] CASTILLO A.Risk analysis and management in power outage and restoration: a literature survey[J]. Electric power systems research, 2014, 107: 9-15.
[68] 曾博, 胡品端, 王涵, 等. 基于NSBM-DEA的矿山综合能源系统能效评估方法[J]. 太阳能学报, 2025, 46(3): 177-188.
ZENG B, HU P D, WANG H, et al.Energy efficiency evaluation method of mine integrated energy system based on NSBM-DEA[J]. Acta energiae solaris sinica, 2025, 46(3): 177-188.
[69] LIU Z Y, LI H, HOU K, et al.Risk assessment and alleviation of regional integrated energy system considering cross-system failures[J]. Applied energy, 2023, 350: 121714.
[70] MAKHMALBAF A, FULLER J, SRIVASTAVA V, et al.Co-simulation of detailed whole building with the power system to study smart grid applications[C]//2014 IEEE Conference on Technologies for Sustainability (SusTech). Portland, OR, USA, 2015: 192-198.
[71] 荣俊杰, 周明, 元博, 等. 台风天气考虑故障演化的电力系统韧性评估方法[J]. 电网技术, 2024, 48(3): 1114-1124.
RONG J J, ZHOU M, YUAN B, et al.Resilience assessment method on power systems under typhoon disaster considering failure evolution process[J]. Power system technology, 2024, 48(3): 1114-1124.
[72] FOROOTAN M M, LARKI I, ZAHEDI R, et al.Machine learning and deep learning in energy systems: a review[J]. Sustainability, 2022, 14(8): 4832.
[73] 岳宗阳, 魏征, 王凯庆, 等. 基于贝叶斯网络时序模拟的综合能源系统可靠性评估[J]. 太阳能学报, 2024, 45(10): 220-230.
YUE Z Y, WEI Z, WANG K Q, et al.Reliability evaluation of integrated energy system based on Bayesian network time series simulation[J]. Acta energiae solaris sinica, 2024, 45(10): 220-230.