考虑动态碳排放因子和风电预测的综合能源系化调度

张振华; 曾林俊; 黄伟颖; 徐佳妮; 卿巍; 李焕婷

doi:10.19912/j.0254-0096.tynxb.2025-0242

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太阳能学报 ›› 2026, Vol. 47 ›› Issue (7) : 18-29. DOI: 10.19912/j.0254-0096.tynxb.2025-0242

考虑动态碳排放因子和风电预测的综合能源系化调度

张振华, 曾林俊, 黄伟颖, 徐佳妮, 卿巍, 李焕婷

作者信息 +

OPTIMAL SCHEDULING OF INTEGRATED ENERGY SYSTEMS CONSIDERING DYNAMIC CARBON EMISSION FACTORS AND WIND POWER FORECASTS

Zhang Zhenhua, Zeng Linjun, Huang Weiying, Xu Jiani, Qing Wei, Li Huanting

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文章历史 +

摘要

为提高风能等可再生能源的利用率,进一步降低综合能源系统（IES）的碳排放水平,提出一种基于动态碳排放因子和风电预测的综合能源系统优化调度策略。首先建立综合能源系统架构,在此基础上构建基于动态碳排放因子的碳排放计量方法;其次,针对风力发电的波动性和间歇性造成的安全稳定运行问题,提出一种基于CNN-BiGRU-Attention的组合风电功率区间预测模型,通过比较所提模型与多种传统预测模型的风电预测效果,验证该模型的有效性和优越性;最后,以购能成本、碳交易成本和弃风成本之和最小为低碳经济运行目标,通过设置多个运行场景,验证了所提调度策略能够在降低系统运营成本的同时有效减少碳排放量。

Abstract

To improve the utilization rate of renewable energy sources and reduce the carbon emission level of integrated energy system （IES）, an optimal scheduling strategy of IES is proposed based on dynamic carbon emission factor and wind power prediction. Firstly, an IES architecture is established, along with a carbon emission measurement method that considers dynamic emission factors. Secondly, a combined wind power interval prediction model based on CNN-BiGRU-Attention is proposed in view of the safe and stable operation problems caused by the volatility and intermittency of wind power generation. The effectiveness of this model is verified by comparing the proposed model with a variety of traditional prediction models for wind power prediction. Finally, taking the minimization of the sum of energy purchase cost, carbon trading cost and wind curtailment cost as the low-carbon economic operation goal, the proposed scheduling strategy is verified to be able to effectively reduce carbon emissions while lowering the system operation cost by setting up several operation scenarios.

导出引用

张振华, 曾林俊, 黄伟颖, 徐佳妮, 卿巍, 李焕婷. 考虑动态碳排放因子和风电预测的综合能源系化调度[J]. 太阳能学报. 2026, 47(7): 18-29 https://doi.org/10.19912/j.0254-0096.tynxb.2025-0242

Zhang Zhenhua, Zeng Linjun, Huang Weiying, Xu Jiani, Qing Wei, Li Huanting. OPTIMAL SCHEDULING OF INTEGRATED ENERGY SYSTEMS CONSIDERING DYNAMIC CARBON EMISSION FACTORS AND WIND POWER FORECASTS[J]. Acta Energiae Solaris Sinica. 2026, 47(7): 18-29 https://doi.org/10.19912/j.0254-0096.tynxb.2025-0242

中图分类号： TM73

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