全国日太阳总辐射估算模型评估

孙娴; 雷杨娜; 魏娜; 胡琳; 程路; 何晓嫒

doi:10.19912/j.0254-0096.tynxb.2025-0390

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太阳能学报 ›› 2026, Vol. 47 ›› Issue (7) : 571-578. DOI: 10.19912/j.0254-0096.tynxb.2025-0390

全国日太阳总辐射估算模型评估

孙娴¹, 雷杨娜², 魏娜², 胡琳², 程路², 何晓嫒²

作者信息 +

EVALUATION OF DAILY GLOBAL SOLAR RADIATION ESTIMATION MODELS IN CHINA

Sun Xian¹, Lei Yangna², Wei Na², Hu Lin², Cheng Lu², He Xiaoai²

Author information +

文章历史 +

摘要

为研究太阳日总辐射估算模型在中国的适用性,采用全国121个辐射站逐日总辐射和日照时数、气温日较差等观测数据,选取5个有代表性的日总辐射估算模型：非线性模型（模型Ⅰ）、日照百分率模型（模型Ⅱ）、线性模型（模型Ⅲ）、B&C模型（模型Ⅳ）和综合模型（模型Ⅴ）,从平均绝对误差（E_MAE）、平均绝对百分比误差（E_MAPE）、均方根误差（E_RMSE）和归一化均方根误差（E_NRMSE）等指标评估模型适用性。结果表明：模型Ⅰ和模型Ⅲ的模拟效果最优,模型Ⅳ和模型Ⅴ的误差较大;同时,模型Ⅰ和模型Ⅲ在不同气候区域的稳定性较好,适合全国范围的日总辐射估算。

Abstract

In this study, the applicability and accuracy of the estimation model of daily global solar radiation in China are systematically evaluated. Based on the measured data of 121 radiation observation stations in China and combined with meteorological factors such as sunshine duration and daily temperature range, five representative models for estimating daily global solar radiation were selected, including nonlinear model （model Ⅰ）, percentage of sunshine model （model Ⅱ）, linear model （model Ⅲ）, B&C model （model Ⅳ） and comprehensive model （model Ⅴ）, and their applicability nationwide was tested. Through the evaluation of indicators such as the mean absolute percentage error （E_MAE）, mean absolute percentage error （E_MAPE）, root mean square error （E_RMSE）, and normalized root mean square error （E_NRMSE）, it is found that Model I and model Ⅲ have the best simulation performance, while model Ⅳ and model V have larger errors. Further analysis indicates that Model I and model Ⅲ have better stability in different climate regions and are suitable for daily global solar radiation estimation nationwide. The research results provide a scientific basis for the assessment of solar radiation resources and the development of solar energy in China.

导出引用

孙娴, 雷杨娜, 魏娜, 胡琳, 程路, 何晓嫒. 全国日太阳总辐射估算模型评估[J]. 太阳能学报. 2026, 47(7): 571-578 https://doi.org/10.19912/j.0254-0096.tynxb.2025-0390

Sun Xian, Lei Yangna, Wei Na, Hu Lin, Cheng Lu, He Xiaoai. EVALUATION OF DAILY GLOBAL SOLAR RADIATION ESTIMATION MODELS IN CHINA[J]. Acta Energiae Solaris Sinica. 2026, 47(7): 571-578 https://doi.org/10.19912/j.0254-0096.tynxb.2025-0390

中图分类号： P49

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