基于变权理论和云模型的锂离子电池运行风险评估

石正禄; 许加柱; 贺扬; 胡浩

doi:10.19912/j.0254-0096.tynxb.2025-0563

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太阳能学报 ›› 2026, Vol. 47 ›› Issue (8) : 46-55. DOI: 10.19912/j.0254-0096.tynxb.2025-0563

基于变权理论和云模型的锂离子电池运行风险评估

石正禄, 许加柱, 贺扬, 胡浩

作者信息 +

OPERATIONAL RISK ASSESSMENT OF LITHIUM-ION BATTERIES BASED ON VARIABLE WEIGHT THEORY AND CLOUD MODEL

Shi Zhenglu, Xu Jiazhu, He Yang, Hu Hao

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摘要

为了保障锂离子电池的安全、可靠运行,提出一种基于变权理论结合云模型的离子电池运行风险评估方法。首先,综合锂离子电池运行风险因素,构建多决策的综合评估指标体系,对锂离子电池运行状态进行全面客观的评价;随后,利用矩估计和变权理论对各指标的主客观权重进行组合和动态调整,权重系数更加可靠与精准;进一步采用云模型对离子电池进行风险评估,确定锂离子电池运行风险等级;最后,以某地储能电站在不同工况下5个锂离子电池为例,采用所提方法和传统方法进行仿真分析。结果表明,所提方法可实现准确的锂离子电池运行风险评估。

Abstract

To ensure the safe and reliable operation of lithium-ion batteries （LIBs）, a risk assessment method is proposed based on variable weight theory combined with the cloud model. Firstly, a comprehensive evaluation index system incorporating multiple decision factors is established by integrating various operational risk factors of LIBs, enabling holistic and objective assessment of their operational status. Subsequently, moment estimation and variable weight theory are employed to dynamically integrate and adjust the subjective and objective weights of each indicator, resulting in more reliable and precise weight coefficients. Furthermore, cloud model is adopted to conduct risk assessment and determine the risk level of LIBs operation. Finally, simulation analyses using both the proposed method and conventional approaches are performed on five LIBs from an energy storage station under different operating conditions. Results indicate that the proposed method achieves accurate operational risk assessment for LIBs.

导出引用

石正禄, 许加柱, 贺扬, 胡浩. 基于变权理论和云模型的锂离子电池运行风险评估[J]. 太阳能学报. 2026, 47(8): 46-55 https://doi.org/10.19912/j.0254-0096.tynxb.2025-0563

Shi Zhenglu, Xu Jiazhu, He Yang, Hu Hao. OPERATIONAL RISK ASSESSMENT OF LITHIUM-ION BATTERIES BASED ON VARIABLE WEIGHT THEORY AND CLOUD MODEL[J]. Acta Energiae Solaris Sinica. 2026, 47(8): 46-55 https://doi.org/10.19912/j.0254-0096.tynxb.2025-0563

中图分类号： TM912

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