基于DASGI的沙戈荒大型新能源基地时序生产模拟概率分析

江棋; 潘文轩; 林星宇; 张一帆; 唐俊杰; 周念成

doi:10.19912/j.0254-0096.tynxb.2025-0636

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太阳能学报 ›› 2026, Vol. 47 ›› Issue (8) : 498-508. DOI: 10.19912/j.0254-0096.tynxb.2025-0636

基于DASGI的沙戈荒大型新能源基地时序生产模拟概率分析

江棋¹, 潘文轩¹, 林星宇¹, 张一帆², 唐俊杰¹, 周念成¹

作者信息 +

PROBABILISTIC ANALYSIS OF TIME-SERIES PRODUCTION SIMULATION FOR LARGE-SCALE RENEWABLE ENERGY BASES IN GOBI AND DESERT AREAS BASED ON DASGI METHOD

Jiang Qi¹, Pan Wenxuan¹, Lin Xingyu¹, Zhang Yifan², Tang Junjie¹, Zhou Niancheng¹

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文章历史 +

摘要

对于经直流输电通道外送的沙戈荒新能源基地,为解决在概率场景中通过时序生产模拟评估其新能源消纳率及输电通道利用率的计算效率低的问题,提出一种基于维自适应稀疏网格插值（DASGI）的时序生产模拟代理模型的快速概率分析方法。首先,针对各类不确定性因素的综合影响,将蒙特卡洛抽样方法与时序生产模拟相结合,以实现双重不确定性的概率分析;其次,利用DASGI代理模型对时序生产模拟中复杂的原始模型进行逼近,然后通过其代理模型结合随机抽样样本实现快速的时序生产模拟概率分析及风险评估。最终,实验结果表明,DASGI代理模型的计算结果与原始模型保持高度一致,计算时间显著缩短,且结合更多配置点的DASGI模型能够精准辨识潜在的越限风险。

Abstract

For renewable energy bases in gobi and desert areas exporting power via high-voltage direct current （HVDC） transmission links, addressing the challenge of low computational efficiency when evaluating their renewable energy integration rates and transmission corridor utilization rates through time-series production simulation under probabilistic scenarios, this study proposes a fast probabilistic analysis method based on a dimension adaptive sparse grid interpolation （DASGI） surrogate model for time-series production simulation. First, Monte Carlo sampling is integrated with time-series production simulation to perform probabilistic analysis under dual uncertainty factors. Then, the DASGI surrogate model is employed to approximate the complex original model within time-series production simulations, enabling fast probabilistic analysis and risk assessment. Experimental results demonstrate that the DASGI model achieves high consistency with the original simulation while significantly reducing the computation time. Moreover, the DASGI model, when applied with a larger sample size, effectively identifies potential exceeding limit risk.

导出引用

江棋, 潘文轩, 林星宇, 张一帆, 唐俊杰, 周念成. 基于DASGI的沙戈荒大型新能源基地时序生产模拟概率分析[J]. 太阳能学报. 2026, 47(8): 498-508 https://doi.org/10.19912/j.0254-0096.tynxb.2025-0636

Jiang Qi, Pan Wenxuan, Lin Xingyu, Zhang Yifan, Tang Junjie, Zhou Niancheng. PROBABILISTIC ANALYSIS OF TIME-SERIES PRODUCTION SIMULATION FOR LARGE-SCALE RENEWABLE ENERGY BASES IN GOBI AND DESERT AREAS BASED ON DASGI METHOD[J]. Acta Energiae Solaris Sinica. 2026, 47(8): 498-508 https://doi.org/10.19912/j.0254-0096.tynxb.2025-0636

中图分类号： TM744

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