计及天气变化概率的光伏-光热综合能源系统跨日优化调度

刘鑫屏; 毛应豪

doi:10.19912/j.0254-0096.tynxb.2025-0649

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太阳能学报 ›› 2026, Vol. 47 ›› Issue (8) : 278-287. DOI: 10.19912/j.0254-0096.tynxb.2025-0649

计及天气变化概率的光伏-光热综合能源系统跨日优化调度

刘鑫屏, 毛应豪

作者信息 +

CROSS DAY OPTIMAL SCHEDULING OF PHOTOVOLTAIC-SOLAR THERMAL INTEGRATED ENERGY SYSTEM CONSIDERING PROBABILITY OF WEATHER CHANGE

Liu Xinping, Mao Yinghao

Author information +

文章历史 +

摘要

针对光伏-光热综合能源系统跨日调度中太阳辐照度预测精度低、数据波动性大的问题,提出一种基于天气概率模型的双层粒子群优化调度方法,以保障系统的稳定性、经济性。依据Beta分布建立太阳辐照度概率分布模型,基于概率模型设计72 h-24 h双层粒子群优化架构,上层通过合理储备光热储能量应对天气不确定性,下层根据天气变化概率进行经济调度。算例分析表明,概率模型与双层优化的协同机制改进策略在不同天气类型下可求解系统最优辐照度点,与传统调度策略相比在多种不确定性天气条件下可实现长时间尺度下储热系统能量配置与调度成本协同最优。

Abstract

A double-layer particle swarm optimization scheduling method based on weather probability model is proposed to address the problems of low accuracy of solar irradiance prediction and large data volatility in cross day scheduling of photovoltaic-solar thermal integrated energy systems, in order to ensure the stability and economy of the system. Establish a probability distribution model for solar irradiance intensity based on the Beta distribution, and design a 72 hour-24 hour double-layer particle swarm optimization architecture based on the probability model. The upper layer responds to weather uncertainty by storing solar thermal energy reasonably, while the lower layer performs economic scheduling based on the probability of weather changes. The case analysis shows that the collaborative mechanism improvement strategy of probability model and double-layer optimization can solve the optimal irradiance intensity point of the system under different weather types. Compared with traditional scheduling strategies, it can achieve the coordinated optimization of energy configuration and scheduling cost of thermal storage systems under various uncertain weather conditions for a long time scale.

导出引用

刘鑫屏, 毛应豪. 计及天气变化概率的光伏-光热综合能源系统跨日优化调度[J]. 太阳能学报. 2026, 47(8): 278-287 https://doi.org/10.19912/j.0254-0096.tynxb.2025-0649

Liu Xinping, Mao Yinghao. CROSS DAY OPTIMAL SCHEDULING OF PHOTOVOLTAIC-SOLAR THERMAL INTEGRATED ENERGY SYSTEM CONSIDERING PROBABILITY OF WEATHER CHANGE[J]. Acta Energiae Solaris Sinica. 2026, 47(8): 278-287 https://doi.org/10.19912/j.0254-0096.tynxb.2025-0649

中图分类号： TM73

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