基于LCA-LEAP模型的单晶硅片生产过程碳排放及其减排潜力研究

邵鹏; 徐鹏博; 于志强; 薛凯旋; 李泽昆; 王雨竹

doi:10.19912/j.0254-0096.tynxb.2025-0703

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太阳能学报 ›› 2026, Vol. 47 ›› Issue (9) : 260-268. DOI: 10.19912/j.0254-0096.tynxb.2025-0703

基于LCA-LEAP模型的单晶硅片生产过程碳排放及其减排潜力研究

邵鹏, 徐鹏博, 于志强, 薛凯旋, 李泽昆, 王雨竹

作者信息 +

STUDY ON CARBON EMISSION AND EMISSION REDUCTION POTENTIAL OF MONOCRYSTALLINE SILICON WAFER PRODUCTION PROCESS BASED ON LCA-LEAP MODELING

Shao Peng, Xu Pengbo, Yu Zhiqiang, Xue Kaixuan, Li Zekun, Wang Yuzhu

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摘要

为评估光伏产品制造环节对环境的影响,该文采用生命周期评价（LCA）方法对生产1 kg单晶硅片进行碳排放的量化分析,包括贡献性分析、敏感性分析、改进分析和能量回收期分析。计算发现生产1 kg单晶硅片共排放397.6 kg（该文碳排放均以CO₂计）。贡献性分析表明,单晶硅棒和切片生产碳排放最大,占比58.22%;多晶硅提纯次之,占比32.63%;工业硅冶炼碳排放最小,占比9.15%。敏感性分析表明,电力是影响整个环节碳排放最敏感的因素,敏感度高达37.66%。改进分析表明,使用可再生能源电力是显著的减排措施,将减少149.84 kg的碳排放。通过数据分析得出1 kg单晶硅片能量回收期为3.35 a。最后使用长期能源替代规划系统（LEAP）预测2025—2030年多种单一情景及其综合情景下生产1 kg单晶硅片的碳排放情况,发现以技术与能源结构减排相结合的潜力为最高,随后是能源结构减排情景,技术减排情景的潜力则相对最低。

Abstract

In order to evaluate the environmental impact of photovoltaic product manufacturing, the carbon emissions attributable to the production of 1 kg of monocrystalline silicon wafers were estimated using a life cycle assessment （LCA） methodology, including contribution analysis, sensitivity analysis, improvement analysis and energy payback period analysis. It is calculated that the production of 1 kg of monocrystalline silicon wafers emits a total of 397.6 kg（in this paper, carbon emissions are measured in carbon dioxide）. The contribution analysis showed that the CO₂ emission of monocrystalline silicon rods and wafers was the largest, accounting for 58.22%; polysilicon purification was the second, accounting for 32.63%; industrial silicon smelting has the smallest CO₂ emissions, accounting for 9.15%. Sensitivity analysis shows that electricity is the most sensitive factor affecting the carbon emissions of the entire process, with a sensitivity of 37.66%. The improvement analysis shows that the use of renewable electricity is a significant emission reduction measure, which will reduce carbon emissions by 149.84 kg. Through data analysis, the energy payback period of 1kg monocrystalline silicon wafer is 3.35 years. Finally, the long-range energy alternatives planning system （LEAP） is used to predict the carbon emissions of 1 kg monocrystalline silicon wafer production under multiple single scenarios and their comprehensive scenarios from 2025 to 2030, and it is found that the potential of combining technology and energy structure emission reduction is the highest, followed by the energy structure emission reduction scenario, and the potential of the technology emission reduction scenario is the lowest.

导出引用

邵鹏, 徐鹏博, 于志强, 薛凯旋, 李泽昆, 王雨竹. 基于LCA-LEAP模型的单晶硅片生产过程碳排放及其减排潜力研究[J]. 太阳能学报. 2026, 47(9): 260-268 https://doi.org/10.19912/j.0254-0096.tynxb.2025-0703

Shao Peng, Xu Pengbo, Yu Zhiqiang, Xue Kaixuan, Li Zekun, Wang Yuzhu. STUDY ON CARBON EMISSION AND EMISSION REDUCTION POTENTIAL OF MONOCRYSTALLINE SILICON WAFER PRODUCTION PROCESS BASED ON LCA-LEAP MODELING[J]. Acta Energiae Solaris Sinica. 2026, 47(9): 260-268 https://doi.org/10.19912/j.0254-0096.tynxb.2025-0703

中图分类号： X758

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