基于VMD分频与GRU-Informer协同机制的多风场风速预测

梁涛; 陈蕊; 米大斌; 井延伟; 郭艳旬; 张二辉

doi:10.19912/j.0254-0096.tynxb.2025-0712

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太阳能学报 ›› 2026, Vol. 47 ›› Issue (9) : 755-770. DOI: 10.19912/j.0254-0096.tynxb.2025-0712

基于VMD分频与GRU-Informer协同机制的多风场风速预测

梁涛¹, 陈蕊¹, 米大斌², 井延伟³, 郭艳旬⁴, 张二辉⁴

作者信息 +

MULTI-WIND-FARM WIND SPEED PREDICTION BASED ON VMD FREQUENCY DIVISION AND GRU-INFORMER SYNERGISTIC MECHANISM

Liang Tao¹, Chen Rui¹, Mi Dabin², Jing Yanwei³, Guo Yanxun⁴, Zhang Erhui⁴

Author information +

文章历史 +

摘要

针对风电集控中心多风场风速序列非平稳性强及多尺度特征差异显著的问题,提出一种基于变分模态分解（VMD）分频与门控循环单元（GRU）-长序列时间序列预测模型（Informer）协同机制的混合风速预测模型。首先,利用VMD技术对典型风电场的风速及相关气象变量进行多模态分解,并将分解后的子序列重构为高频与低频两类信号。其次,构建分频协同预测架构,针对低频信号趋势性强、长期依赖显著的特点,采用GRU神经网络进行快速且精准的预测;针对高频信号波动剧烈、包含复杂细节的特点,利用Informer模型在长序列处理上的优势进行捕捉。随后,将两部分预测结果重组,形成典型风场的基础预测值。进一步地,针对集控中心多风场集中管控的需求,采用迁移学习策略将典型风场的特征模型迁移至中心平台,并引入多目标浣熊优化算法（MOCOA）对多源模型的预测结果进行自适应加权融合,构建具有强泛化能力的通用预测模型,以实现对辖区内其他风电场的精准预测。实验结果表明,该混合模型在风电集控中心的应用中展示了较高的预测精度、较强的环境适应能力及较快的响应速度,证明了其在实际应用中的有效性和优越性。

Abstract

To address the strong nonstationarity of wind speed time series, multi-scale variability, and cross-farm heterogeneity in centralized wind power control-center scenarios, this study proposes a hybrid wind speed forecasting model based on VMD-based frequency-band decomposition and a GRU-Informer synergistic mechanism. First, variational mode decomposition （VMD） is applied to wind speed and relevant meteorological variables from representative wind farms, and the decomposed modal components are reconstructed into low-frequency and high-frequency signals. A frequenly-band cooperative forecasting architecture is then developed. The gated recurrent unit （GRU） network is used to model low-frequency components with clear trend characteristics and long-term dependencies, while the Informer model is employed to capture complex fluctuations and long-range dependencies in high-frequency components. The forecasts from the two channels are subsequently reconstructed to obtain the baseline forecast for representative wind farms. Furthermore, to support multi-wind-farm forecasting under centralized management, a transfer learning strategy is introduced to transfer the learned source-domain models to target wind farms. A multi-objective coati optimization algorithm （MOCOA） is further used to adaptively fuse the forecasts of multiple source-domain expert models, thereby constructing a generalized forecasting model with improved adaptability and generalization capability. Experimental results show that the proposed hybrid model achieves high forecasting accuracy, strong environmental adaptability, and fast response in centralized wind power control applications, demonstrating its effectiveness and practical value.

导出引用

梁涛, 陈蕊, 米大斌, 井延伟, 郭艳旬, 张二辉. 基于VMD分频与GRU-Informer协同机制的多风场风速预测[J]. 太阳能学报. 2026, 47(9): 755-770 https://doi.org/10.19912/j.0254-0096.tynxb.2025-0712

Liang Tao, Chen Rui, Mi Dabin, Jing Yanwei, Guo Yanxun, Zhang Erhui. MULTI-WIND-FARM WIND SPEED PREDICTION BASED ON VMD FREQUENCY DIVISION AND GRU-INFORMER SYNERGISTIC MECHANISM[J]. Acta Energiae Solaris Sinica. 2026, 47(9): 755-770 https://doi.org/10.19912/j.0254-0096.tynxb.2025-0712

中图分类号： TM614

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