构网型储能系统热失控与长期衰退耦合的可靠性研究

李熙志; 林伟; 杨文龙; 朱文超; 杨扬; 谢长君

doi:10.19912/j.0254-0096.tynxb.2025-0825

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太阳能学报 ›› 2026, Vol. 47 ›› Issue (9) : 88-98. DOI: 10.19912/j.0254-0096.tynxb.2025-0825

构网型储能系统热失控与长期衰退耦合的可靠性研究

李熙志¹, 林伟¹, 杨文龙², 朱文超², 杨扬¹, 谢长君³

作者信息 +

RELIABILITY STUDY OF GRID-FORMING ENERGY STORAGE SYSTEMS WITH COUPLED THERMAL RUNAWAY AND LONG-TERM DEGRADATION

Li Xizhi¹, Lin Wei¹, Yang Wenlong², Zhu Wenchao², Yang Yang¹, Xie Changjun³

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文章历史 +

摘要

随着高渗透新能源接入,构网型储能系统被更多地用于构建新型电力系统。然而,储能系统的可靠性与运行温度强相关：高温不仅加速容量衰减,还易触发热失控。该文提出一种构网型电池储能系统（grid-forming battery energy storage system,GFM-BESS）可靠性分析框架,基于构网系统运行特性,构建电-热-容量多域耦合模型,并将热失控与衰退失效概率模型相关联,将其嵌入蒙特卡洛仿真框架,基于组串拓扑评估系统可靠度与失电风险,实现从单体失效到整体性能演化的分析;在风储互补系统中开展多场景仿真,评估不同初始电池荷电状态（SOC）及调度策略下的运行可靠性。仿真结果表明,该框架能有效反映构网型储能在动态扰动与衰退耦合工况下的性能演化。

Abstract

With the high penetration of new energy sources, grid-forming BESSs are more frequently used to build new power systems. However, the reliability of BESS is highly correlated with the operating temperature： high temperature not only accelerates the capacity degradation, but also triggers the thermal runaway. This paper proposes a reliability analysis framework for grid-forming BESS, constructs a multi-domain coupling model of electricity-heat-capacity based on the operating characteristics of the grid-forming system, associates the thermal runaway with the degradation failure probability model, embeds it into the Monte Carlo simulation framework, and evaluates the system reliability and the risk of loss of power based on the topology of the string groups to analyze the evolution from cell failure to the overall performance. A multi-scenario simulation is carried out in the wind-storage complementary system to evaluate the operational reliability under different initial SOC and dispatch strategies. The simulation results show that the framework can effectively reflect the performance evolution of grid-forming energy storage under dynamic perturbation and degradation coupling conditions.

导出引用

李熙志, 林伟, 杨文龙, 朱文超, 杨扬, 谢长君. 构网型储能系统热失控与长期衰退耦合的可靠性研究[J]. 太阳能学报. 2026, 47(9): 88-98 https://doi.org/10.19912/j.0254-0096.tynxb.2025-0825

Li Xizhi, Lin Wei, Yang Wenlong, Zhu Wenchao, Yang Yang, Xie Changjun. RELIABILITY STUDY OF GRID-FORMING ENERGY STORAGE SYSTEMS WITH COUPLED THERMAL RUNAWAY AND LONG-TERM DEGRADATION[J]. Acta Energiae Solaris Sinica. 2026, 47(9): 88-98 https://doi.org/10.19912/j.0254-0096.tynxb.2025-0825

中图分类号： TK02

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